Analyzing the Carbon Storage of Selected Harvested Wood Products (HWPs) in Sri Lanka = 스리랑카에서 선별된 수확 목재 제품(HWPs)의 탄소 저장량 분석

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study analyzed the carbon storage potential of harvested wood products (HWPs) derived from teak (Tectona grandis) and pine (Pinus caribaea) plantations in Sri Lanka using six years of data (2019–2024). The research aimed to quantify HWPs carbon storage, enhance sustainable forest management (SFM), promote wood as a material substitution, explore renewable energy substitution potential, and develop a model for HWPs carbon assessment. IPCC established equations used for calculating carbon storage and CO2 sequestration through harvested wood volumes of selected wood products. Production approach method and FOD models used for estimating remained carbon after decays while adding the annual domestic stocks, CO2 emission avoidance was calculating through substitution potentials of HWPs for steel, concrete and plastic as well as coal. 2022 was the peak carbon stored and CO2 sequesters as well as CO2 emission avoidance year throughout the study period. Pine HWPs accumulated higher carbon stored and CO2 sequesters as well as CO2 emission avoidance than teak products. Furniture and logs served as the main long-term carbon reservoirs while furniture shows lower decay than logs. Colombo shows highest carbon storage in furniture while Badulla shows the highest for other main selected HWPs. Growth of carbon storing was slowing down annually. Carbon storing was decreasing over time in both teak and pine products. Badulla, Ampara, Matara, and Ratnapura as the most productive regions in CO2 reduction and carbon storage. SFI and SR showed both teak and pine plantations were maintained under sustainably without any harvesting stresses. But in 2022 Badulla, Kurunegala, Kandy, Monaragala regions showed high harvesting stresses and minimum regrowing. A significant substitution effect showed for plastic than steel and concrete while substituting steel showed highest CO2 emission avoidance. Colombo and Matara region showed highest substitution potential for plastic. Steel was the higher potential material for pine HWPs of material substitution in 2022 in Badulla Matara, Ampara and Rathnapura areas. Similar trends showed by coal in energy substitution. ANOVA tests which were done for the temporal, spatial and product-wise analysis while, t-tests conducted for the species-wise analysis. For overall relationships assessed through Generalized Linear Model (GLM) which confirmed that species, product, and region significantly influence in all climate mitigation scenarios of storing carbon and sequestering CO2 as well as avoiding CO2 emissions in substitution potential while year is not shows significant influence on them. Overall explain 20% to 48% of the variability confirming that species-related, temporal, and regional factors are important in carbon dynamics and sustainable forest management in material and energy substitution. CCM model highlights harvested wood products (HWPs) mitigate climate change by storing carbon, replacing materials of concrete, steel and plastic, and recovering energy of coal. As CCM model sensitive with the effect of the emission leakages, the stability of the CCM model under moderate uncertainty was confirmed by the alignment of sensitivity analysis levels of LL-5%; HL-10%.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Abstract i
• Table of Content iv
• List of Tables vii
• List of Figures viii
• List of Abbreviations x
• 1 CHAPTER INTRODUCTION 1
• 1.1 Background 1
• 1.2 Problem statement 2
• 1.3 Scope of the study 2
• 1.4 Significance of the study 3
• 1.5 Research objectives 4
• 1.6 Limitations & assumptions of the study 5
• 2 CHAPTER LITERATURE REVIEW 7
• 2.1 Role of HWPs in climate change mitigation 7
• 2.2 Global trends in HWPs 12
• 2.3 Trends & role of the Forest Department & State Timber Corporation
• on carbon storage in HWPs in Sri Lanka 12
• 2.4 IPCC approaches of estimating carbon storage in HWPs 13
• 2.5 Uncertainties of estimating carbon in HWPs 15
• 2.6 Research gaps of estimating carbon storage in HWPs in Sri Lanka 16
• 3 CHAPTER METHODOLOGY 18
• 3.1 Study area and study framework 18
• 3.2 Research design and approach 20
• 3.2.1 Objective 1 - Methodological approach to access contribution of
• HWPs to carbon storage 21
• 3.2.2 Objective 2 - Evaluate the sustainable forest management (SFM)
• through HWPs 25
• 3.2.3 Objective 3 – Examine material substitution potential of HWPs
• to replace materials such as steel, plastic, and concrete 31
• 3.2.4 Objective 4 – Assessing energy substitution benefits of HWPs
• for coal 32
• 3.2.5 Objective 5 - Approach to the develop a model of HWPs for
• supporting to climate change adaptation and mitigation policy
• 35
• 4 CHAPTER RESULTS 38
• 4.1 Objective 1 – Analysis in contribution of HWPs to carbon storage
• and CO2 sequestration 38
• 4.1.1 Variability analysis on carbon storage and CO2 sequestration of
• selected HWPs and furniture products over the considerable
• time period 40
• 4.1.2 Analysis of overall carbon storage and CO2 sequestration of
• selected HWPs 41
• 4.1.3 Comparison of overall carbon storage and CO2 sequestration in
• between the selected HWPs and furniture products 47
• 4.1.4 Sensitivity analysis and First Order Decay of the HWPs 56
• 4.1.5 Analysis of production approach of selected HWPs 59
• 4.2 Objective 2: Analysis of sustainable forest management (SFM)
• through HWPs 61
• 4.2.1 Analysis of temporal sustainable forest management (SFM)
• through HWPs 61
• 4.2.2 Analysis of species-wise sustainable forest management (SFM)
• through HWPs 64
• 4.2.3 Analysis of region-wise sustainable forest management (SFM)
• through HWPs 66
• 4.2.4 Analysis of product-wise sustainable forest management (SFM)
• through HWPs 69
• 4.3 Objective 3: Analysis of material substitution potential of HWPs for
• the materials such as steel, plastic, and concrete 70
• 4.3.1 Analysis of year-wise material substitution potential of HWPs
• and furniture products 71
• 4.3.2 Analysis of species-wise material substitution potential of HWPs
• and furniture products 72
• 4.3.3 Analysis of region-wise material substitution potential of HWPs
• and furniture products 73
• 4.3.4 Analysis of year-wise material substitution potential of HWPs to
• replace materials such as steel, plastic, and concrete 75
• 4.3.5 Analysis of species-wise material substitution potential of HWPs
• to replace materials such as steel, plastic, and concrete 78
• 4.3.6 Analysis of region-wise material substitution potential of HWPs
• to replace materials such as steel, plastic, and concrete 80
• 4.3.7 Analysis of product-wise material substitution potential of
• HWPs to replace materials such as steel, plastic, and concrete 82
• 4.4 Objective 4: Analysis of energy substitution benefits of HWPs for
• coal 84
• 4.4.1 Analysis of year-wise energy substitution potential of HWPs to
• replace coal 84
• 4.4.2 Analysis of species-wise energy substitution potential of HWPs
• to replace coal 86
• 4.4.3 Analysis of region-wise energy substitution potential of HWPs to
• replace coal 87
• 4.4.4 Analysis of product-wise energy substitution potential of HWPs
• to replace coal 89
• 4.4.5 Analysis of carbon storage, CO2 sequestration, material
• substitution potential, energy substitution potential and
• sustainable forest management effects through HWPs 91
• 4.5 Objective 5: CCM model development for supporting to develop
• climate change adaptation and mitigation policies 94
• 4.5.1 Sensitivity of CCM model effect on temporal variations of CO2
• mitigation potential in HWPs 94
• 4.5.2 Sensitivity of CCM model effect on product types of CO2
• mitigation potential in HWPs 95
• 4.5.3 Sensitivity of CCM model effect on species variety of CO2
• mitigation potential in HWPs. 96
• 4.5.4 Sensitivity of CCM model effect on regional variations of CO2
• mitigation potential in HWPs 97
• 5 CHAPTER DISCUSSION 98
• 6 CHAPTER CONCLUSION 112
• REFERENCES 115
• 국문초록 119
• ACKNOWLEDGEMENT 122