Alternative and Renewable Energy (ARE) Policy 2019, and its Impact on Pakistan’s Climate = 대체 및 재생 에너지(ARE) 정책 2019 및 파키스탄 기후에 미치는영향

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Pakistan is facing an intensifying energy climate induced challenge, marked by rising electricity demand, increasing utility prices and dependence on fossil fuels, and growing vulnerability to climate change. In response, the Alternative and Renewable Energy (ARE) Policy 2019 aims to raise the share of renewables in the national power mix and support Pakistan’s commitments under NDC 3.0. The study tries to quantify increased renewable energy generation and tries to examine the effect the policy has had since its inception on Pakistan’s Energy mix and the increase in Renewable energy while providing the effect in terms of reduced GHG emissions through international data of Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research EDGAR. Results indicate that renewable generation, particularly solar, wind, and hydropower has increased significantly since 2022. EDGAR data independently confirms a 17 percent decline in power- sector emissions from 68.11 Mt in 2022 to 56.23 Mt in 2024. This convergence demonstrates early and measurable decarbonization attributable to ARE 2019. The thesis concludes that ARE Policy is effectively steering Pakistan toward a lower-carbon power system but requires strengthened grid integration, sustainable financing, and robust governance to achieve its 2030 renewable-energy targets. Policy recommendations focus on scaling solar and wind deployment, enhancing emission reporting systems, and improving market reforms to sustain long-term energy and climate resilience.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• ABSTRACT i
• List of Tables vii
• List of Figures viii
• Nomenclature ix
• Chapter 1. Introduction 1
• 1.1. Background 1
• 1.2. Problem Statement 3
• 1.3. Research Objectives 7
• 1.4. Research Questions 7
• 1.5. Significance of the Study 8
• Chapter 2 Literature Review 11
• 2.1. Methodological Approach to the Literature Review 13
• 2.1.1. How to Search: 13
• 2.1.2. Screening and Selection 14
• 2.1.3. Extracting Data and Evaluating Its Quality 14
• 2.1.4. Limitations of the Review 15
• 2.2. Methodological Approach to the Literature Review 15
• 2.2.1. Energy-Transition Theory and Decarbonization 16
• 2.2.2. Policy Mix and Governance Theories in Renewable
• Energy Policy 17
• 2.2.3 System Integration and Flexibility 18
• 2.3. Global Evolution of Renewable Energy Policies 19
• 2.3.1. Combining Carbon Pricing and Policies for Renewable
• Energy 20
• 2.3.2. Changes in governance and institutional learning 21
• 2.3.3. Things Pakistan's Policy Context Can Learn 22
• 2.4. Renewable Energy Policies as Tools for Reducing Carbon Emissions
• 22
• 2.4.1. Vietnam: Feed-in Tariffs and the Problem of
• Curtailment 24
• 2.4.2. Turkey: Localizing and Sequencing Policies 24
• 2.4.3. Lessons from the OECD: Germany, Chile, and Japan
• . 25
• 2.5. Decarbonization through Renewable Energy Sources 26
• 2.5.1. Evidence of Emission Reductions Driven by Renewable
• Energy 26
• 2.5.2. Ways that renewables can help with decarbonization 27
• 2.5.3. The Benefits of Expanding Renewable Energy 27
• 2.5.4. Problems and dangers 28
• 2.5.5. The Context of Pakistan 28
• 2.6. Evolution of Pakistan’s Renewable-Energy Policy Framework 30
• 2.6.1. Phase I – Policy Inception (2006–2010): Starting Points
• for Institutions 30
• 2.6.2. Phase II—Institutional Expansion (2011–2018):
• Growth and Learning 31
• 2.6.3. Phase III – Strategic Integration (2019–Present): The
• ARE Policy 2019 31
• 2.6.4. Phase III – Strategic Integration (2019–Present): The
• ARE Policy 2019 32
• 2.6.5. Lessons Learned 33
• 2.6.6. Summary 33
• 2.7. Review of the Alternative and Renewable Energy (ARE) Policy 2019
• 34
• 2.7.1. Policy Objectives and Strategic Alignment 34
• 2.7.2. Policy Instruments and Mechanisms 35
• 2.7.3. Institutional Assessments and Early Performance 36
• 2.7.4. Integration with National and International Climate
• Frameworks 36
• 2.7.5. Important Strengths Found in Literature 37
• 2.7.6. Weaknesses and Implementation Deficiencies 37
• 2.7.7. Contribution to Research 38
• 2.8. Research Gaps for Renewable Energy Driven Decarbonization in
• Pakistan 38
• 2.8.1. Contribution of the Current Study 40
• 2.8.2. Contribution of the Current Study 40
• Chapter 3 Research Methodology 43
• 3.1. Research Design 43
• 3.2. Data Sources 45
• 3.2.1. National Data Sources 45
• 3.2.2. International Data Sources 47
• 3.2.3. Data Time Frame and Validation 47
• 3.2.4. Reliability and Limitations 48
• 3.3. Method for Projecting Future Renewable Energy Share (2025–2030)
• 48
• 3.4. Analytical Approach 49
• 3.4.1. Comparing the energy mix before and after policy
• implementation 49
• 3.4.2. Sensitivity and Validation 50
• 3.4.3. Limitations of the Study 50
• 3.4.4. Chapter summary 51
• Chapter 4 Results and Discussion 53
• 4.1 Overview of Power Generation Trends in Pakistan (FY 2018–FY 2025)
• 54
• 4.2. Renewable Energy Share Before and After the ARE Policy 201955
• 4.3. Renewable Energy Share and ARE Policy Targets 57
• 4.3.1. Conclusions 61
• 4.4. Projected Electricity Generation (ARE + NDC 3.0, Renewables Only) –
• FY 2025 to FY 2030 64
• 4.5. Emissions Data Base for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR)
• 65
• 4.6. Understanding the 2021–2022 Increase in Emissions Despite Higher
• Renewable Shares 66
• 4.7. The Solar Boom and Energy Transition Dynamics 67
• 4.8. Summary of results 68
• Chapter 5 Conclusions and Recommendations 70
• 5.1. Conclusions 70
• 5.2. Policy Recommendations 72
• 5.3. Strengthening Base-Load Stability through Nuclear Power 75
• 5.4. Limitations and Future Scope 77
• 5.5. Conclusion and Way Forward 78
• References 80
• Acknowledgements 85