IMPACT OF PASSENGER TRAFFIC ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN PARAGUAY: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS WITH OTHER COUNTRIES

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Impact of Passenger Traffic on Economic Growth in Paraguay: A Comparative Analysis with Other Countries

Alberto Singo de Jesus Tokunaga Barboza
Global Aviation Policy Program
The Graduate School
Korea Aerospace University
(Advisor: Prof. Byung Jong Kim)

This study examines the impact of air passenger traffic on economic growth in Paraguay, with a comparative analysis using South Korea as a benchmark. The research aims to determine whether air transport significantly influences a nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and whether this interrelation follows a similar pattern across countries at different stages of aviation development.

Annual data were used from 2009 to 2024 and applying the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). Data were obtained from official sources such as DINAC, BCP, MOLIT, and KOSTAT. Results for Paraguay show a weak and statistically insignificant impact (R² = 0.0406; p = 0.454), while South Korea exhibits a moderate and significant positive correlation (R² = 0.3771; p = 0.011). These contrasting results indicate that the economic impact of air transport depends on the maturity and integration of each country’s aviation sector. The results for Paraguay and Korea were also compared with those obtained by Udoka (2020) for the Nigeria case, which serves as the primary reference study for this research.

The study concludes that, nowadays, aviation does not play an essential role in Paraguay’s economy.

Key words: gross domestic product, passenger traffic, air transport, ordinary least squares, regression method, aviation.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 1
• 1.1 Background 1
• 1.2 Research objectives 7
• 1.3 Research methodology 7
• 1.4 Research scope 8
• CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 9
• CHAPTER 3. THEORICAL FRAMEWORK 12
• 3.1 Econometrics 12
• 3.2 Regression analysis 13
• 3.2.1 Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Regression 13
• 3.2.2 Coefficient of determination (R2) 14
• 3.2.3 Adjusted R2 () 14
• 3.2.4 Standard error of the Estimate (SEE) 15
• 3.2.5 Standard error of the coefficients 15
• 3.2.6 T-statistic 15
• 3.2.7 p-value 16
• 3.3 Cointegration and causality analysis 16
• CHAPTER 4. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 24
• viii
• 4.1 Research Model and Hypotheses 24
• 4.1.1 Hypothesis 1: Paraguay case 24
• 4.1.2 Hypothesis 2: Comparative case 24
• 4.2 Data collection 25
• 4.3 Analytical Steps Summary. 26
• 4.4 Data analysis 26
• 4.4.1 Regression analysis 26
• 4.4.2 Validation and Interpretation 27
• 4.4.3 Reference Study 27
• CHAPTER 5. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 28
• 5.1 Standardized data 28
• 5.2 Scatter plots 29
• 5.3 Results for Paraguay 30
• 5.3.1 Model equation (Py) 30
• 5.3.2 Technical Interpretation 31
• 5.3.3 Economic Interpretation 31
• 5.4 Results for Korea 31
• 5.4.1 Model equation (KOR) 32
• 5.4.2 Technical Interpretation 32
• 5.4.3 Economic Interpretation 33
• 5.5 Graphs 33
• 5.6 Comparative Analysis: Paraguay and Korea 34
• 5.7 Comparative Analysis: Paraguay, Korea, and Nigeria 35
• 5.8 Discussions 36
• 5.9 Hypotheses testing and Interpretation 37
• 5.9.1 Hypothesis 1: Paraguay case 37
• 5.9.2 Hypothesis 2: Comparative case 37
• 5.10 Discussion of Research questions 38
• CHAPTER 6. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 41
• 6.1 Conclusions 41
• 6.2 Recommendations 42
• 6.3 Fulfillment of research objectives 43
• 6.4 Limitations of the Study 44
• 6.5 Suggestions for Future Research 45
• 6.6 Final Remarks 45
• REFERENCES 46