러-우 전쟁이 북한의 핵태세 변화에 미치는 영향 연구 : DIME 모델을 중심으로 = A Study on the Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on the Change of North Korea's Nuclear Posture: Focusing on the DIME Model

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

A Study on the Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on the Change of North Korea's Nuclear Posture: Focusing on the DIME Model Park, Yong Woo Advisor : Prof. Kim, Beob Heon, Ph.D. Department of Military Science Graduate School of Chosun University Russia has changed its nuclear posture twice to curb direct U.S. and NATO intervention and support during the Russia-Ukraine war. In a September 2024 nuclear doctrine amendment, Russia determined that a non-nuclear country attacked Russia with the participation or support of a nuclear-armed country, and lowered the threshold for nuclear use by stating that it could also attack a non-nuclear country. As such, Russia pursues nuclear dominance as a strategic advantage in war, and for this purpose, its nuclear posture is changing according to the situation of the war. Ukraine is responding to the changed nuclear posture, raising fears that the Russia-Ukraine war will escalate into a nuclear war. The problem consciousness of this study is as follows. First, what factors have changed Russia's nuclear posture in the Russia-Ukraine war?, Second, how will North Korea's nuclear posture be affected by the factors that change Russia's nuclear posture?, Third, how does North Korea's nuclear posture affect South Korea, and what is South Korea's response strategy. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to derive the factors that changed Russia's nuclear posture in the Russia-Ukraine war. In addition, by analyzing the effect of the derived factors of nuclear posture change on North Korea's nuclear posture change, we predict changes in North Korea's nuclear posture. And it is to present the implications of changes in North Korea's nuclear posture and the direction of response development. First, the factors that change Russia's nuclear posture were derived as follows. In diplomacy, alliance relationship, UN sanctions, and cooperation among friendly countries, In the field of Information, nuclear surveillance capabilities, information warfare, a psychological warfare, leadership will, In the military field, Intent of nuclear strategy, advancement of nuclear power, and relative conventional power. In the economic field, resource acquisition, war costs, and external dependence were derived. Second, as a result of analyzing the impact of Russia's nuclear posture change factors on North Korea's nuclear posture, it is as follows. In the field of diplomacy, North Korea has a reliable alliance with Russia through alliances, while the reliability of the Korea-U.S. alliance is suspected. UN sanctions were undermined by Russia and China's veto and measures in defiance of sanctions. It was analyzed that North Korea is attempting to strengthen cooperative security with Russia's support under the North Korea-Russia treaty. In the Information field, nuclear surveillance capabilities are improving through North Korea-Russia cooperation and its own efforts. It was analyzed that North Korea would strengthen and actively operate information warfare, a psychological warfare capabilities. Kim Jong-un, chairman of the State Affairs Commission, was analyzed to be an aggressive person while being able to make rational judgments. In the military field, the benefits of conventional attacks are guaranteed with a strategy to control escalation after the war. In addition, through the electrification of nuclear-powered submarines, the viability of the means of projection is improved, and North Korea aims to minimize the gap by asymmetric power. In the economic field, it was determined that North Korea's dispatch of troops, dispatch of workers, and supply of weapons made it easier to secure resources, that the market was expanding through Russia, and that many of the markets on the Chinese side were being converted to Russia. Third, North Korea's Nuclear Posture Changes Have Implications for South Korea. Nuclear coercion by aggressive asymmetric escalation posture. North Korea's nuclear posture changes increase the nuclear threat on the Korean Peninsula. Advanced psychological warfare using changes in nuclear posture. Accelerate North Korea's nuclear posture using Russia-Ukraine war. In response to this, the following was suggested as the direction of development of South Korea's response to North Korea's nuclear weapons program. International cooperation and practical diplomacy should be conducted. It is necessary to establish the ability to acquire nuclear information and respond to information warfare and psychological warfare. Extended deterrence forces based on the Korea-U.S. alliance should be strengthened. We need to secure investment and capabilities in technology to respond to North Korea's nuclear weapons. Keyword: Russia-Ukraine War, Nuclear Posture, Nuclear Strategy, DIME Model, Assured Retaliation

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제1장 서론 1
• 제1절 연구의 배경 및 목적 1
• 제2절 연구의 범위 및 방법 4
• 1. 연구의 범위 4
• 2. 연구의 방법 5
• 제3절 선행 연구 검토 8
• 1. 러시아와 북한의 핵태세 8
• 2. 핵태세 변화 요인 12
• 3. 선행 연구 검토 결과 14
• 제2장 이론적 배경과 분석의 틀 16
• 제1절 핵 관련 이론 16
• 1. 핵전략 16
• 2. 핵태세 19
• 제2절 DIME 모델 24
• 1. 주요 개념 및 사례 24
• 2. 핵태세 분석 세부 요소 25
• 제3절 분석의 틀 31
• 제3장 러시아 핵태세 변화 요인 사례 분석 33
• 제1절 러-우 전쟁 33
• 1. 전쟁 경과 33
• 2. 전쟁 간 핵태세 변화 36
• 제2절 외교 요소 39
• 1. 집단방위 39
• 2. 집단안보 41
• 3. 협력안보 44
• 제3절 정보 요소 48
• 1. 정보수집 수단 48
• 2. 정보관리 50
• 3. 지도자의 성향 53
• 제4절 군사 요소 59
• 1. 군사전략 59
• 2. 핵전력 62
• 3. 재래식전력 65
• 제5절 경제 요소 69
• 1. 자원 69
• 2. 금융 72
• 3. 시장 75
• 제6절 소결론 79
• 제4장 북한의 핵태세 변화 전망 82
• 제1절 외교 요소 82
• 1. 동맹의 관계 82
• 2. UN의 제재 86
• 3. 우호국의 협력 90
• 제2절 정보 요소 95
• 1. 핵 감시 능력 95
• 2. 정보·심리전 99
• 3. 지도자의 의지 102
• 제3절 군사 요소 106
• 1. 핵전략 의도 106
• 2. 핵전력 고도화 109
• 3. 상대적 재래식전력 114
• 제4절 경제 요소 118
• 1. 자원의 확보 118
• 2. 전쟁 비용 121
• 3. 대외 의존도 124
• 제5절 소결론 128
• 제5장 북한의 핵태세 변화 함의와 한국의 대응 방향 131
• 제1절 북한의 핵태세 변화 함의 131
• 제2절 한국의 대응 방향 137
• 1. 국제 공조 및 실리적 외교 137
• 2. 핵 정보 획득 및 정보·심리전 대응 능력 구축 141
• 3. 한·미 동맹 기반 확장억제전략 강화 146
• 4. 북핵 대응 기술 투자 및 능력 확보 151
• 제6장 결론 157
• 제1절 연구결과 요약 157
• 제2절 정책적 시사점과 연구의의 160
• 참고문헌 164