한국 정유산업의 향후 진로에 대한 국민들의 선호 분석 = Should South Korea’s Oil Refining Industry Move abroad or Remain in the Country in the Future? Insights from a Public Perspective

국문 초록 (Abstract)

제 목 : 한국 정유산업의 향후 진로에 대한 국민들의 선호 분석


우리나라 정부는 기후변화 문제에 적극적으로 대응하기 위하여 2050 탄소중립 추진 전략을 시작으로, 2050 장기 저탄소 발전 전략(LEDS, Long-term low greenhouse gas Emission Development Strategies), 2050 탄소중립 시나리오 수립 등 많은 노력을 기울이고 있다. 특히, 2030 국가 온실가스 감축 목표 (NDC, Nationally Determined Contribution)와 2050 탄소중립 시나리오를 수립하는 과정에서 제시된 정부 검토(案)에 따르면, 국가 온실가스 감축 목표가 정유산업을 포함한 일부 기간산업의 국내 생산량을 현저히 줄이거나 해당 생산설비를 해외로 이전하지 않고서는 달성하기 어려운 수준으로 높게 설정되어 있는 반면, 온실가스 감축 목표를 이행하는 과정에서 발생하는 사회적 비용(주 요 산업의 해외이전에 따른 국내 일자리 감소 등)에 대한 국민적 합의나 사회 적 논의가 충분히 이루어지지 않아 많은 논란을 불러 일으켰다.

이에 따라, 본 논문은 국가 온실가스 배출량 감축을 위해 국내 정유산업을 해외로 이전하는 방안(A안)과 일자리 확보를 위해 국내에 남겨두는 방안(B안) 에 대한 국민들의 선호를 조사하여 분석하였다. 이를 위해, 국내 1,000명의 성인을 대상으로 두 가지 방안 중 무엇을 더 선호하는지 설문조사를 실시하였다. 설문지는 응답자로 하여금 ‘온실가스 감축을 위해 국내 정유산업을 해외로 이전하는 방안(A안)’과 ‘일자리 유지를 위해 국내에 남겨두는 방안(B안)’중 더 선호하는 방안을 선택하게 하고, 선택한 방안에 대해서는 리커트 5점 척도로 응답자의 선호강도를 평가하도록 설계하였다.

설문조사 결과, ‘일자리 유지를 위해 국내에 남겨두는 방안(B안)’을 선호하는 응답자가 ‘온실가스 감축을 위해 국내 정유산업을 해외로 이전하는 방안(A안)’ 을 선택한 응답자보다 약 4.9배 많은 것으로 나타났으며, 선호강도 또한 B안 이 A안보다 약 1.4배 큰 것으로 확인되었다. 이러한 국민들의 선호도를 감안한다면 정책효과성 및 수용성 차원에서 정부 의 기존 검토(案) 수정이 불가피할 것으로 보인다. 정부의 정책결정에 있어서 국민들의 선호가 가장 중요한 요소는 아닐 수 있으나, 국민들로부터 지지를 받지 못하는 정책은 결국 실패할 수밖에 없기 때문이다. 따라서, 탄소중립 이행과정에서 정유산업의 역할 및 이에 대한 정책을 고민 할 때 정유산업에 대한 국민들의 요구와 선호를 사전 파악하여 정책을 수립하여야 할 것이며, 정책 추진방향과 국민들의 선호가 일치하지 않을 경우 정부는 사회적 토론회나 공론화 과정을 통해 국민들을 설득하여 동의를 이끌어내 는 의견 수렴 절차가 반드시 수반되어야 할 것이다.

한편, 서열 프로빗 모형을 통해 ‘정유산업의 해외이전에 대한 국민들의 선호도’조사 과정에서 응답자의 특성이 해당 응답자의 선호에 영향을 미칠 수 있는지 여부도 살펴보았다. 분석 결과, 응답자의 경험, 인식, 소득수준, 주거지역 등과 같은 개인적·사회적 특성들이 응답자의 선호에 영향을 줄 수 있는 것으로 확인되었다.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 요약 ·················································································································· ⅰ
• 표 목차 ············································································································ ⅳ
• 그림 목차 ········································································································ ⅵ
• Ⅰ. 서론 ·············································································································· 1
• Ⅱ. 국내 정유산업의 현황 ·················································································· 4
• 1. 국내 정유산업의 정제설비 현황 ································································· 4
• 2. 국내 정유산업의 수급 현황 ······································································ 12
• 3. 국내 정유산업의 국가 기여도 ·································································· 25
• 4. 국내 정유산업의 온실가스 감축 추진 현황 ··············································· 30
• Ⅲ. 조사 방법론 ····························································································· 38
• 1. 선호도 도출방법 ······················································································ 38
• 2. 설문문항 개발 ························································································ 39
• 3. 설문조사 수행 ························································································ 41
• 4. 데이터 분석 방법론 ················································································ 44
• Ⅳ. 연구결과 ································································································ 46
• 1. 분석결과 ······························································································· 46
• 2. 결과에 대한 논의 ··················································································· 52
• 3. 정유산업의 해외이전에 대한 재검토 필요성 ·········································· 55
• Ⅴ. 결론 ······································································································· 58
• 참고문헌 ····································································································· 60
• 영문초록 ····································································································· 64
• 감사의 글