Study on the determinants of renewable energy technological innovation and deployment in OECD countries|RISS 상세보기

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 논문은 탄소중립 실현을 위한 핵심 수단이라고 할 수 있는 재생에너지의 기술혁신과 재생에너지 발전의 보급·확산에 영향을 미치는 요인에 대해 분석하였다. 특히 선진국을 중심으로 재생에너지는 발전원의 한 축으로 자리매김하고 있으며, 앞으로도 발전뿐만 아니라, 산업, 수송부문에서 활용도가 높아질 것으로 기대되고 있다. 하지만 우리나라의 경우 지난 2012년 이후 재생에너지 의무공급제(Renewable Portfolio Standards, RPS)를 포함하여 다양한 시장 창출 정책을 시행하고 있으며 태양광, 풍력발전을 중심으로 특허건수도 OECD 상위권에 위치하지만, 발전원 중 재생에너지 비중이 OECD 최하위권에 머물러 있다. 국토가 좁고 입지 여건이 우호적이지 못하지만, 재생에너지 발전 비중이 주요 선진국과 비교하여 1/4∼1/5 수준에 머물러 있다는 점은 탄소중립 이행 과정에서 국가와 기업 모두에게 부담으로 작용할 가능성이 크다 하겠다.
이에 첫 번째 연구는 OECD 27개국을 대상으로 재생에너지 기술혁신을 대표하여 인구 백만 명당 특허건수를 종속변수로 설정하고, 이에 영향을 미치는 요인을 기술주도 및 수요 창출 정책, 전기요금과 1인당 GDP 등의 설명변수를 통해 분석하였다. 특허건수는 과대산포되어 있는 특성이 있어 음이항 회귀분석(Negative binomial regression)을 통해 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 공공부문 재생에너지 R&D 투자 스톡(Stock)은 기술혁신에 양(+)의 영향을 주었으며, 최종에너지 소비 중 전기화 비중, 보조금(Feed-in Tariff, FIT), 재생에너지 의무공급제 또한 양의 영향을 주는 것으로 분석되었다. 특히 본 연구에서는 전기요금과 배출권거래제 또는 탄소세를 도입한 탄소가격제 시행 여부가 기술혁신에 양의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다.
두 번째 연구는 OECD 21개국을 대상으로 재생에너지 발전 보급·확산에 영향을 미치는 요인을 패널 일반화 최소제곱법(Generalized Least Squares, GLS) 모형을 통해 분석하였다. 설명변수로 공공부문의 재생에너지 R&D 스톡, 보조금, 재생에너지 의무공급제, 탄소가격제, 전기요금 및 전력 소비량을 사용하였고, 제어변수로 1인당 GDP, 비농지면적과 원자력발전량을 사용하였다. 분석 결과 재생에너지 의무공급제, R&D 스톡, 전력 소비량, 전기요금과 비농지면적은 재생에너지 보급·확산에 양의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다.
결론적으로 먼저 재생에너지 보급 정책 수단 간의 상호작용을 충분히 고려한 정책 조합(policy mix)을 고려할 필요가 있다. 예로서 재생에너지 의무공급제는 기술혁신과 보급·확산에 양의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 하지만 우리나라는 의무공급제를 전면 폐지하고, 대안으로 경매제도가 논의되고 있는데, 시장의 혼란을 방지하기 위해 특정 기간 의무공급량을 일정 수준으로 유지할 필요가 있다. 두 번째, 전기요금의 가격 신호 기능을 적극적으로 활용함으로써 재생에너지 기술혁신과 보급·확산을 모두 유도할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. 우리나라 전기요금에는 기후환경요금이 포함되어 있는데, 기존 RPS 의무이행비용 부담과 함께 신규 재생에너지 보급을 위한 송·배전망 비용, 재생에너지 변동성을 완화하기 위한 설비 신·증설 비용, 재생에너지 혁신기술 개발 R&D 비용 등을 포함하는 것을 고려할 필요가 있다. 마지막으로 전기화는 탄소중립 달성을 위해 중요한 온실가스 감축 수단으로 정부 차원의 적극적인 관리가 요구된다. 그 동안 전기화에 대한 연구가 일부에 한정되었는데, 재생에너지 기술혁신에 기여함으로써 에너지전환과 함께 산업, 수송부문의 탄소중립에도 긍정적 영향을 미칠 것으로 기대되어 전반적인 전기화에 대한 정부 차원의 전략이 수립되고 시행되어야 할 것이다.

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본 논문은 탄소중립 실현을 위한 핵심 수단이라고 할 수 있는 재생에너지의 기술혁신과 재생에너지 발전의 보급·확산에 영향을 미치는 요인에 대해 분석하였다. 특히 선진국을 중심으로 재...

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper analyzes the factors affecting the technological innovation of renewable energy, which can be said to be a key means for achieving carbon neutrality, and the deployment and dissemination of renewable energy generation. In particular, renewable energy has established itself as one of the axes of power generation sources, especially in advanced countries, and its utilization is expected to increase in the future, not only in power generation but also in the industrial and transportation sectors. However, in the case of Korea, various market creation policies including the Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) have been implemented since 2012, and although the number of patents centered on solar and wind power generation is ranked high in the OECD, the proportion of renewable energy among power generation sources remains at the bottom of the OECD. Although the country is small and the location conditions are not favorable, the fact that the proportion of renewable energy generation is only 1/4 to 1/5 of that of major advanced countries is likely to be a burden to both the country and companies in the process of transitioning to carbon neutrality.
Accordingly, the first study set the number of patents per million people as the dependent variable representing renewable energy technological innovation in 27 OECD countries, and analyzed the factors affecting it through explanatory variables such as technology-push and demand-full policies, electrification, and GDP per capita. Since the number of patents tends to be overdispersed, it was analyzed through negative binomial regression. The results of the analysis showed that the stock of public sector renewable energy R&D investment has a positive (+) effect on technological innovation, and the share of electrification in final energy consumption, Feed-in Tariff(FIT), and RPS also has positive effects. In particular, this study showed that electricity rates and the implementation of a carbon pricing system that introduces an emissions trading system or carbon taxes has a positive effect on technological innovation.
The second study analyzes factors affecting the deployment and dissemination of renewable energy generation in 21 OECD countries using a panel generalized least squares (GLS) model. The explanatory variables used are renewable energy R&D stock, FIT, RPS, carbon pricing system, electricity price, and electricity consumption, and the control variables use GDP per capita, non-farm land area, and nuclear power generation. The analysis results find that the RPS, R&D stock in the public sector, electricity consumption, electricity price, and non-farm land area have a positive effect on the deployment and dissemination of renewable energy.
In conclusion, it is necessary to first consider a policy mix that sufficiently considers the interactions between renewable energy deployment policies. For example, the RPS is found to have a positive effect on technological innovation and deployment and dissemination. However, Korea is considering abolishing the RPS completely and discussing an auction system as an alternative, but it is necessary to maintain the mandatory supply at a certain level for a specific period to prevent market confusion. Second, by actively utilizing the price signal function of electricity price, it is thought that both technological innovation and deployment and dissemination of renewable energy can be induced. Korea’s electricity price include climate and environmental fees, and it is necessary to consider including, along with the burden of existing RPS obligation compliance costs, transmission and distribution network costs for renewable energy dissemination, new and expanded facility construction costs to alleviate renewable energy volatility, and R&D costs for renewable energy innovation technology development. Finally, electrification is an important greenhouse gas reduction means for achieving carbon neutrality, and active management at the government level is required. Study on electrification has been limited to some areas so far, but it is expected that it will have a positive impact on carbon neutrality in the industry and transportation sectors along with the energy transition by contributing to innovation in renewable energy technology. Therefore, a government-level strategy for overall electrification should be established and implemented.

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목차 (Table of Contents)

List of Tables ............................................................................................................................v
List of Figures ..........................................................................................................................vii
Abstract .......................................................................................................................................viii
Chapter 1. Introduction

List of Tables ............................................................................................................................v
List of Figures ..........................................................................................................................vii
Abstract .......................................................................................................................................viii
Chapter 1. Introduction
1.1 Research Background and Purpose ..................................................................................1
1.2 Research Structure .................................................................................................................4
Chapter 2. Renewable Energy Technological Innovation and Deployment of Renewable
Energy Generation
2.1 Status of Renewable Energy Deployment ....................................................................6
2.1.1 Carbon Neutrality, Energy Transition, and Renewable Energy .................................6
2.1.2 Renewable Energy Deployment Goals of OECD countries ....................................10
2.1.3 Current Status of Renewable Energy Generation Shares in OECD .......................11
2.1.4 Policy Trends in Renewable Energy Deployment and Dissemination in OECD ..16
2.2 Trends in Renewable Energy R&D Investments .............................................................24
2.2.1 OECD Renewable Energy R&D Investment Trends ................................................24
2.2.2 OECD Renewable Energy R&D Investment Performance .......................................27
2.2.3 Trends in Renewable Energy R&D in South Korea ................................................29
2.3 Renewable Energy and Technological Innovation ..........................................................31
2.3.1 Changing Conditions for Technological Innovation ..................................................31
2.3.2 Technological Innovation in the Renewable Energy Sector ....................................32
Chapter 3. Review of Previous Research and Framework Development
3.1 Determinants of Technological Innovation in Renewable Energy ..................................35
3.1.1 Technology-Push and Demand-Pull Theories .............................................................35
3.1.2 Technological System Approach .................................................................................40
3.2 Deployment and Dissemination of Renewable Energy ...................................................41
3.3 Analytical Framework and Hypothesis Development ......................................................46
3.3.1 Factors Influencing Renewable Energy Technological Innovation ..........................46
3.3.2 Analysis of Correlations Between Renewable Energy Dissemination, R&D, and Key Policies ..................................................................................................................49
Chapter 4. Analysis of Factors Influencing Renewable Energy Technological Innovation
4.1 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................52
4.2 Variables and Research Model ...........................................................................................53
4.2.1 Variables ........................................................................................................................53
4.2.2 Research Model ............................................................................................................57
4.3 Empirical Analysis ...............................................................................................................59
4.3.1 Analysis Data ................................................................................................................59
4.3.2 Results of Analysis ......................................................................................................61
Chapter 5. Analysis of the Relationship between Renewable Energy Deployment, R&D,
and Policies
5.1 Introduction .........................................................................................................................68
5.2 Variables and Research Model ..........................................................................................69
5.2.1 Variables ........................................................................................................................69
5.2.2 Research Model ............................................................................................................72
5.3 Empirical Analysis ...............................................................................................................73
5.3.1 Analysis Data ................................................................................................................73
5.3.2 Results of Analysis ......................................................................................................75
Chapter 6. Policy Implications
6.1 Policy Mix ...........................................................................................................................83
6.2 Rationalization of Electricity Prices ..................................................................................87
6.3 Management of Electrification ...........................................................................................90
Chapter 7. Conclusion
7.1 Summary and Conclusion ..................................................................................................94
7.2 Study Limitations and Future Research Directions .........................................................96
References ............................................................................................................................98
Abstracts in Korean ...................................................................................................................104

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