미국의 인도-태평양 소다자주의 안보 전략 : 위협균형 이론을 중심으로 = The U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy with Minilateralism : Based on Balance of Threat Theory

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The United States regards China as a contender that challenges a ‘rule-based order’ in East Asia and the West Pacific. Since China successfully participated in WTO in 2001, China has reinforced one-party rule. The Xi government demanded that the U.S. recognizes China as a great power. China’s One Belt, One Road and String of Pearls signified the termination of a peaceful rise. In response, the U.S. administrations have implemented the ‘Pivot to Asia’ and ‘Indo-Pacific Strategy’ to maintain balance in the Indo-Pacific region.
In 2017, the U.S. re-established QUAD to play a critical role in containing China. The middle powers of Australia and India previously promoted hedging between the U.S. and China. With the establishment of QUAD 2.0, the two middle powers have demonstrated that they are inclined to partake in the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy. The Malabar Naval Exercise was initiated in 1992 and conducted annually by the U.S. Navy and Indian Navy in the Indo-Pacific maritime zones. In 2021, the U.S. Navy, Indian Navy, Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force, and Australian Navy all partook together for the first time.
AUKUS was founded in September 2021 and is regarded by some as America’s ‘most important allied entity.’ The Australian Navy is on track to have nuclear-powered submarines and relevant high-tech technologies around 2030 with support from the U.S. and U.K. governments. Australia now joins all of QUAD and AUKUS for the Indo-Pacific Strategy and plays a crucial role in checking China’s expansion of influence in the South Pacific.
The status quo suggests that the U.S. will promote the ‘3-4-5 scrum strategy’, which consists of AUKUS, QUAD, and Five Eyes. It also implies that the U.S. is looking to complement the traditional framework of bilateral alliances within the Indo-Pacific region. This paper aims to analyze the rise of China and China’s pursuit of maritime hegemony. This paper confirms that the U.S. considers China’s rise as a threat, based on Walt’s Balance of Threat Theory as developed from Waltz’s Balance of Power Theory. The U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy does not call for a ‘static’ status quo but instead works actively to counter China’s threatening rise.
China’s growth will continue for the foreseeable period. Accordingly, the U.S. will take countermeasures suitable for the flexible situation by operating under the Indo-Pacific Strategy and 3-4-5 scrum strategy. Since the U.S. is no longer a unipolar power, a scrum strategy that allows countries in the Indo-Pacific to maintain regional relevance is crucial. Furthermore, the 3-4-5 scrum strategy led by the U.S. keeps China in check, but it also functions to supervise U.S.-allied democratic countries and keep those middle powers in the region committed to the U.S. balancing strategy. The U.S. will strengthen and lead this scrum strategy within the Indo-Pacific region.


Key Words : Indo-Pacific Strategy, minilateralism, AUKUS, QUAD, Five Eyes, balance of power, balance of threat, 3-4-5 scrum strategy

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제1장 서론 1
• 제1절 문제제기 및 연구목적 1
• 제2절 연구대상 9
• 제3절 연구방법 및 연구범위 11
• 제2장 선행연구 분석 및 이론 검토 14
• 제1절 선행연구 분석 14
• 제2절 이론 검토 18
• 제3절 논문 분석의 틀 26
• 제3장 미국의 인도-태평양 전략 추진 배경 29
• 제1절 세계전략 및 해양 전략 29
• 제2절 동아시아 전략 32
• 제3절 인도-태평양 전략 34
• 1. 트럼프 행정부의 인도-태평양 전략 35
• 2. 바이든 행정부의 인도-태평양 전략 37
• 제4장 인도-태평양 3-4-5 스크럼 전략 39
• 제1절 스크럼 전략 개념 39
• 제2절 스크럼 전략 목적 및 동인 40
• 1. 전체적 힘: 중국의 G2 부상 40
• 2. 공격적 군사력(공격적 의도): 중국의 PLAN 증강과 미·중 해군력 비교 43
• 3. 지리적 인접성: 해륙 세력 중국의 해외기지 확장 46
• 3. 1 아프리카 지부티 46
• 3. 2 캄보디아 레암 해군기지 49
• 제5장 인도-태평양 3-4-5 스크럼 전략과 역내 중견국의 균형전략 53
• 제1절 역내 중견국 호주의 균형전략 53
• 1. 호주의 역내·역외 이중 지위 56
• 2. 호주의 국방력 강화와 다윈항 임차 사건 57
• 3. QUAD 주도의 합동 해상 기동훈련과 호주 해군의 참가 61
• 제2절 역내 중견국 인도의 균형전략 62
• 1. 중국의 차항출해 전략과 인도의 대중 인식 62
• 2. 인도의 인도·태평양 합동 해상훈련 강화 65
• 3. 인도와 인도양 연안 국가 간 관계 강화 66
• 제3절 AUKUS 1.0과 QUAD 2.0의 융합지정학 68
• 1. 융합지정학의 AUKUS 1.0과 QUAD 2.0 68
• 제4절 Five Eyes 개술 69
• 제6장 결론 및 함의 76
• 참고문헌 79
• 영문초록 90