신(新)냉전 시기 중⋅인 전략경쟁 분석 = Analysis on Strategic Competition between China and India in the New Cold War Period

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The relationship between China and India is complicated and can be said to be intertwined with kindness and grievances. And people have never stopped talking about the "Dragon Elephant dispute" between the two Asian powers that rose almost simultaneously.With the intensified competition between the United States and China after former U.S. President Trump took office, the U.S.-China New Cold War rhetoric has attracted widespread attention. At the same time, tensions on the Sino-Indian border appear to be intensifying. In 2017, the Sino-Indian border standoff lasted for two months, and in 2020, the worst bloody conflict in decades even occurred, causing Sino-Indian relations to drop to the lowest point since the 21st century. However, the relationship between India and the United States is getting closer and closer, and various cooperation agreements have been signed. India is known as the "quasi-ally" of the United States. In the existing research on Sino-Indian relations, the research on the impact of American factors on Sino-Indian relations accounts for a huge proportion.
By citing important diplomatic events between India and China, India and the United States from 2017 to 2022, and sorting out the history of diplomatic exchanges between China, the United States and India during the Cold War, The author believes that the development trend of Sino-Indian relations should be speculated from the national strategies of China and India themselves. The focus of national strategies and the limited resources are the main determinants of strategic competition between the two countries. China and India not only have territorial disputes that have not been resolved for many years, but also have close economic ties. Of course, major powers outside the region, neighboring countries, and the international situation all have a certain impact on China-India relations. In this context, starting from the national strategies of China and India, this paper analyzes the impact of China-India strategic competition on China-India relations from the perspectives of realism, liberalism and constructivism. This paper analyzes the cooperation and contradictions arising from strategic competition in the field of hard power and soft power between China and India, and then speculates on the future direction of China-India relations.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

中国与印度双边关系复杂，可以说是恩怨交织。并且人们对于几乎同时崛起的两个亚洲大国之间的“龙象之争”的讨论从未停止。随着美国前总统特朗普上台后美中竞争激化，美中新冷战论调广受关注。与此同时，中印边境的紧张气氛似乎有愈演愈烈的趋势。2017年中印边境对峙长达两个月，2020年甚至发生了数十年间最严重的流血冲突导致中印关系降到了21世纪以来的最低谷。而印美关系却越来越紧密，签订了各种合作协议，印度被称为美国的“准同盟国”。在现有的中印关系研究中，美国因素对中印关系影响的研究占很大比重。
通过列举2017-2022年印度分别与中国、美国之间的重要外交事件及对于中美印三国之间从冷战期间的外交交流史的整理，笔者认为，中印关系的发展走向应从中国与印度本身的国家战略出发来进行推测。国家战略的侧重点以及资源的有限性是两国之间发生战略竞争的主要决定因素。中印两国之间既存在多年未能得到解决的领土纷争，又在经济上有着紧密的联系。当然，域外大国、周边国家、国际形势等都对于中印关系有一定的影响。本文在此背景下从中国与印度本身的国家战略出发，从现实主义、自由主义、建构主义的视角展开中印战略竞争对中印关系影响的分析。本文分别对中印硬实力领域，软实力领域中的战略竞争产生的合作与矛盾进行分析，进而推测中印关系的未来走向。

목차 (Table of Contents)

• I. 서론 1
• 1. 문제제기 및 연구목적 1
• 2. 연구 범위 및 개념 정리 6
• 1) 시간적 범위: 신냉전 시기 6
• 2) 전략경쟁 12
• 3) 하드파워 & 소프트파워 13
• 3. 연구방법 및 논문의 구성 15
• II. 선행연구 검토 및 이론분석 17
• 1. 선행연구 검토 17
• 2. 이론분석 30
• 1) 현실주의 시각 30
• 2) 자유주의 시각 32
• 3) 구성주의 시각 32
• III. 신냉전 시기 중⋅인 전략경쟁의 배경 34
• 1. 중⋅미 갈등과 신냉전 형성 34
• 1) 냉전 시기 34
• 2) 탈냉전 시기 38
• 3) 신냉전 형성 46
• 2. 중⋅인 전략경쟁의 배경 50
• 1) 국내정치 요인 50
• ① 인도의 국가발전전략 50
• ② 중국의 국가발전전략 55
• 2) 국제환경 요인 59
• ① 지역적 차원 59
• ② 국제적 차원 61
• IV. 신냉전 시기 중⋅인 전략경쟁의 전개 64
• 1. 하드파워 64
• 1) 군사⋅안보 분야 64
• 2) 무역⋅경제 분야 80
• 2. 소프트파워 88
• 1) 발전 모텔 & 이데올로기 88
• 2) 대외원조 91
• 3) 문화 94
• V. 중⋅인 전략경쟁 분석: 갈등과 협력 101
• 1) 하드파워 차원의 갈등과 협력 104
• ① 현실주의 시각 104
• ② 자유주의 시각 106
• ③ 구조주의 시각 110
• 2) 소프트파워 차원의 갈등과 협력 111
• ① 현실주의 시각 111
• ② 자유주의 시각 113
• ③ 구조주의 시각 113
• Ⅵ. 결론 116
• 참고문헌 123