Chinese scholars' perspectives on the US Indo-Pacific strategy (2018-2021)

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The US’ official introduction of ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ (FOIP) at the 2017 APEC summit heralded the replacement of the Asia-Pacific regional framework with the Indo-Pacific. This rhetoric change does not merely connote the rising importance of the Indian Ocean, but also indicates escalating tensions between the US and China. While the US Indo-Pacific strategy had evolved from a vague concept into a substantial strategy nowadays, China has yet officially announced any concrete response policy to manage the situation, which makes it hard to infer its potential actions. Given this, the author proposed that one way to understand Beijing’s posture is through the Chinese scholars, since their ideas are generally shaped under China’s diplomatic discourse, consequently reflecting the authority’s attitude. Based on this, the present thesis endeavors to understand Beijing’s response and potential actions in the face of the US Indo-Pacific strategy by investigating Chinese scholars’ perspectives on it. Through the content analysis of 49 journal articles written by Chinese scholars, this study answered how they perceived the US Indo-Pacific strategy and what they had suggested to deal with the situation. Guided by these research questions, the contents of each article were firstly classified into three categories including 1) drawbacks of the US Indo-Pacific strategy, 2) threats to China, 3) suggestions, and then related sentences and paragraphs were coded as references for further scrutiny.

According to the findings, Chinese scholars generally believed that the implementation of the US Indo-Pacific strategy was crippled by several inherent drawbacks, such as inconsistency among the Quad states, lack of ASEAN’s collective support, and the priority of America’s domestic issues, which made it less likely an immediate threat to China. This also explains why the Chinese authority has yet officially announced any coping strategies but continued to circumvent the topic. As the US Indo-Pacific strategy advances, the following challenges will further destabilize Beijing’s strategic environment and hamper the BRI development. Besides, the China-Taiwan relationship will deteriorate as Washington continues to play the Taiwan card whilst promoting the Indo-Pacific framework. In accordance with such understandings, most Chinese scholars prioritized strengthening connections with the regional to firstly stabilize Beijing’s strategic environment, and some of them further proposed to concentrate on developing the BRI and enhancing China’s national strength. To conclude, as the US Indo-Pacific strategy has been considered a less threatening issue, the Chinese scholars generally believed that Beijing needed no new policy to cope with it and suggested extending China’s global reach through the existing international projects, such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Yet, these seemingly less aggressive suggestions not just indicate the scholars’ personal standpoints, but also reflect China’s diplomatic discourse that highlights the rhetoric of cooperation for building its positive political identity.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Table of Contents
• Abstract vii
• Ⅰ. Introduction 1
• Ⅱ. Literature review and methodology 4
• 2.1 Characteristics of the US Indo-Pacific strategy 4
• 2.2 Previous discussions on the US Indo-Pacific strategy 12
• 2.3 Research method 19
• 2.3.1 Chinese foreign policy making and the role of Chinese scholars’ opinions 19
• 2.3.2 Content analysis: data sources and the selection criteria 22
• 2.3.3 Categorizing, coding and data analysis 29
• Ⅲ. Chinese scholars’ outlooks on the US Indo-Pacific strategy 33
• 3.1 Drawbacks of the US Indo-Pacific strategy 33
• 3.1.1 Inconsistency among the Quad members 33
• 3.1.2 Lack of ASEAN’s collective support 37
• 3.1.3 Limited resources and the emphasis on “America First” policy 40
• 3.2 Looming threats to China 42
• 3.2.1 Increasing instability of the geopolitical environment 42
• 3.2.2 Negative implications on the BRI development 45
• 3.2.3 Escalating tensions between China and Taiwan 47
• Ⅳ. Chinese scholars’ suggestions for Beijing in the established Indo-Pacific framework 50
• 4.1 Stronger connections with the regional powers 50
• 4.2 Emphasis on the BRI development 52
• 4.3 More endeavors to enhance Chinese national strength 55
• 4.4 Prospects of the US Indo-Pacific strategy under the Biden administration 57
• 4.5 Ideas under China’s diplomatic discourse 61
• Ⅴ. Conclusion 64
• Appendices 75
• Bibliography 82