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    How to Utilize Online Texts for Understanding Political Landscape : Method and Application of Online Public Opinion from Twitter = 온라인 텍스트를 활용한 정치 여론 연구 : 트위터를 활용한 온라인 여론 측정 방법 및 적용

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    https://www.riss.kr/link?id=T15793733

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    국문 초록 (Abstract) kakao i 다국어 번역

    민주주의의 기본 전제는 여론의 반영이다. 민주주의는 시민들의 정책적 우선순위를 선거를 통해 반영하는 시스템이다. 시민은 선거를 통해 자신의 선호와 유사한 후보를 입법부 또는 집행부의 일원으로 선출하고, 선출된 정치인은 대중을 대신해 정책적 우선순위를 실현하기 위해 노력한다. 이러한 이유로 여론을 파악하 고 이해하는 것이 정치적으로 매우 중요하다. 현재까지는 서베이 방식의 여론조사를 통해 시민의 여론을 파 악했다. 하지만 인터넷이 광범위하게 도입된 이후 우리의 생활방식은 크게 바뀌었고, 기존의 여론조사방법 은 이러한 변화를 충분히 반영하지 못하고 있다. 본 연구는 온라인 텍스트 데이터를 사용하여 대통령 지지 율을 파악하고, 새로운 방법으로 획득한 여론을 기존 정치학 연구에 적용하여 정치적 함의를 모색하는데 목 적이 있다.
    세상에는 다양한 여론이 존재한다. 다양한 이해를 가진 집단이 존재하고 모든 집단 내에서 여론이 만들어 지기 때문이다. 이러한 이유로 인해 기존의 설문조사 방식만으로 여론을 파악하는 데는 한계가 있다. 본 논 문은여론을측정하는보완적방법을통해하나의주제에도측정대상에따라다양한여론이존재할수있 음을 설명하고, 이를 정치현상에 적용하여 각 여론의 차별적 효과를 검증하고자 한다.
    본논문은정치현상에대한연구방법론개발에목적이있다.즉여론파악을위한새로운연구방법소개 한다. 새로운 연구방법은 컴퓨터를 활용해 대용량의 텍스트 데이터를 수집하고 처리하는 방법, 그리고 컴퓨 터알고리즘을 활용해 텍스트에서 긍정과 부정 등의 감성을 추출하는 방법을 포함한다. 기계학습을 활용해 텍스트에서 감성을 추출함에 있어 효과적인 모델을 모색하고, 온라인에서 파악된 결과를 기존의 오프라인 여론조사와 비교한다. 구체적 연구대상은 정치학 연구에서 가장 유용하게 사용하는 대통령 지지율로 설정했 다.
    본 논문에서 제시된 결론은 첫째, 온라인 데이터와 적절한 알고리즘을 통해 여론 측정이 가능하다는 것이 다. 이러한 가능성은 기존 정치학 연구가 갖는 공간적, 시간적 제한을 줄여주며, 데이터 수집에 필요한 시간및비용을줄여연구에필요한다양한데이터를얻을수있도록한다.둘째,오프라인환경의여론과온 라인 여론이 서로 유사하지 않다는 것을 보여주고 있다. 온라인 여론은 오프라인 여론과 비교해 변동성이 크고 이슈에 보다 신속하게 반응한다. 이와 더불어 새로운 온라인 여론 데이터는 기존의 대통령 지지율 연 구에서 밝히지 못한 현상을 밝히고 있다. 예를 들어, 한국 정치환경에서 온라인 여론은 대통령의 입법성공 율에 긍정적인 영향을 미치고 있었다. 더불어 미국의대통령 지지율을 통해 온라인과 오프라인 여론의 영향 을 미치는 요인이 서로 다르다는 것을 경험적으로 검증하였다.
    번역하기

    민주주의의 기본 전제는 여론의 반영이다. 민주주의는 시민들의 정책적 우선순위를 선거를 통해 반영하는 시스템이다. 시민은 선거를 통해 자신의 선호와 유사한 후보를 입법부 또는 집행...

    민주주의의 기본 전제는 여론의 반영이다. 민주주의는 시민들의 정책적 우선순위를 선거를 통해 반영하는 시스템이다. 시민은 선거를 통해 자신의 선호와 유사한 후보를 입법부 또는 집행부의 일원으로 선출하고, 선출된 정치인은 대중을 대신해 정책적 우선순위를 실현하기 위해 노력한다. 이러한 이유로 여론을 파악하 고 이해하는 것이 정치적으로 매우 중요하다. 현재까지는 서베이 방식의 여론조사를 통해 시민의 여론을 파 악했다. 하지만 인터넷이 광범위하게 도입된 이후 우리의 생활방식은 크게 바뀌었고, 기존의 여론조사방법 은 이러한 변화를 충분히 반영하지 못하고 있다. 본 연구는 온라인 텍스트 데이터를 사용하여 대통령 지지 율을 파악하고, 새로운 방법으로 획득한 여론을 기존 정치학 연구에 적용하여 정치적 함의를 모색하는데 목 적이 있다.
    세상에는 다양한 여론이 존재한다. 다양한 이해를 가진 집단이 존재하고 모든 집단 내에서 여론이 만들어 지기 때문이다. 이러한 이유로 인해 기존의 설문조사 방식만으로 여론을 파악하는 데는 한계가 있다. 본 논 문은여론을측정하는보완적방법을통해하나의주제에도측정대상에따라다양한여론이존재할수있 음을 설명하고, 이를 정치현상에 적용하여 각 여론의 차별적 효과를 검증하고자 한다.
    본논문은정치현상에대한연구방법론개발에목적이있다.즉여론파악을위한새로운연구방법소개 한다. 새로운 연구방법은 컴퓨터를 활용해 대용량의 텍스트 데이터를 수집하고 처리하는 방법, 그리고 컴퓨 터알고리즘을 활용해 텍스트에서 긍정과 부정 등의 감성을 추출하는 방법을 포함한다. 기계학습을 활용해 텍스트에서 감성을 추출함에 있어 효과적인 모델을 모색하고, 온라인에서 파악된 결과를 기존의 오프라인 여론조사와 비교한다. 구체적 연구대상은 정치학 연구에서 가장 유용하게 사용하는 대통령 지지율로 설정했 다.
    본 논문에서 제시된 결론은 첫째, 온라인 데이터와 적절한 알고리즘을 통해 여론 측정이 가능하다는 것이 다. 이러한 가능성은 기존 정치학 연구가 갖는 공간적, 시간적 제한을 줄여주며, 데이터 수집에 필요한 시간및비용을줄여연구에필요한다양한데이터를얻을수있도록한다.둘째,오프라인환경의여론과온 라인 여론이 서로 유사하지 않다는 것을 보여주고 있다. 온라인 여론은 오프라인 여론과 비교해 변동성이 크고 이슈에 보다 신속하게 반응한다. 이와 더불어 새로운 온라인 여론 데이터는 기존의 대통령 지지율 연 구에서 밝히지 못한 현상을 밝히고 있다. 예를 들어, 한국 정치환경에서 온라인 여론은 대통령의 입법성공 율에 긍정적인 영향을 미치고 있었다. 더불어 미국의대통령 지지율을 통해 온라인과 오프라인 여론의 영향 을 미치는 요인이 서로 다르다는 것을 경험적으로 검증하였다.

    더보기

    다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract) kakao i 다국어 번역

    Public Opinion is a fundamental element of democracy. Democratic systems reflect the various preferences of its people through elections. Public opinion influences elections and elected officials of legislative and executive bodies attempt to incorporate people’s desires into the system. Therefore, it is essential to understand the public’s aggregated sentiments. We measure public opinion through a survey method. This has not changed, although our way of communicating has greatly evolved since the introduction of the Internet. This dissertation explores a scientific method for gauging online public opinion using texts from the Internet and it demonstrates how the newly acquired data applies to existing political studies. The study focuses on presidential approval as a subject of analysis because of its popularity and stability in the field of political studies.
    This study recognizes that there is no single body of public opinion. There are groups with different interests, and each group can have a collective attitude. A polling method alone cannot discover all existing public opinions. The dissertation introduces a method for measuring an alternative public opinion, which utilizes online text data, to demonstrate that there is more than one public attitude. It also confirms that public sentiments expressed in online and offline environments are different and have particular political implications.
    The dissertation includes how to process text data of Twitter to fit into a machine learning algorithm and to calculate collected online sentiment. The entire process utilizes the Korean language, which is more complex than English. I compare three different neural networks and two types of data sets to obtain the optimal meaning of a text. The dissertation focuses on presidential approval as a proxy for public opinion. It is the most-used measure of public opinion in politics. The study finds that online public opinion is different than offline polls and that they each have unique political implications by comparing conventional methods of determining presidential approvals and the newly calculated online public opinion. Moreover, computer-generated public opinion fits into political models, which are used in the existing literature, to examine how online public opinion explains various political phenomena.
    The research has two main conclusions. First, in terms of methods, it is possible to obtain public opinion from online text data and the appropriate machined-learned algorithm. This technique can expand the scope of political research by reducing spatial and temporal restrictions in collecting public opinion. It also resolves a common public opinion problem, that polls require significant resources. Second, the research reveals that online public opinion is different from opinions expressed in conventional polls. It is more volatile and responds to the world more quickly than a poll. From the results, online public opinion provides a different political landscape compared to traditional offline surveys. Online attitudes can explain a president’s legislative success in South Korea, while the old measure has no significance. Moreover, the two types of public opinion have different determinants, which indicates that distinct issues affect a particular public. The dissertation demonstrates how to measure and utilize online public opinion. It also provides evidence that online attitudes deliver different perspectives about a political landscape.
    번역하기

    Public Opinion is a fundamental element of democracy. Democratic systems reflect the various preferences of its people through elections. Public opinion influences elections and elected officials of legislative and executive bodies attempt to incorpor...

    Public Opinion is a fundamental element of democracy. Democratic systems reflect the various preferences of its people through elections. Public opinion influences elections and elected officials of legislative and executive bodies attempt to incorporate people’s desires into the system. Therefore, it is essential to understand the public’s aggregated sentiments. We measure public opinion through a survey method. This has not changed, although our way of communicating has greatly evolved since the introduction of the Internet. This dissertation explores a scientific method for gauging online public opinion using texts from the Internet and it demonstrates how the newly acquired data applies to existing political studies. The study focuses on presidential approval as a subject of analysis because of its popularity and stability in the field of political studies.
    This study recognizes that there is no single body of public opinion. There are groups with different interests, and each group can have a collective attitude. A polling method alone cannot discover all existing public opinions. The dissertation introduces a method for measuring an alternative public opinion, which utilizes online text data, to demonstrate that there is more than one public attitude. It also confirms that public sentiments expressed in online and offline environments are different and have particular political implications.
    The dissertation includes how to process text data of Twitter to fit into a machine learning algorithm and to calculate collected online sentiment. The entire process utilizes the Korean language, which is more complex than English. I compare three different neural networks and two types of data sets to obtain the optimal meaning of a text. The dissertation focuses on presidential approval as a proxy for public opinion. It is the most-used measure of public opinion in politics. The study finds that online public opinion is different than offline polls and that they each have unique political implications by comparing conventional methods of determining presidential approvals and the newly calculated online public opinion. Moreover, computer-generated public opinion fits into political models, which are used in the existing literature, to examine how online public opinion explains various political phenomena.
    The research has two main conclusions. First, in terms of methods, it is possible to obtain public opinion from online text data and the appropriate machined-learned algorithm. This technique can expand the scope of political research by reducing spatial and temporal restrictions in collecting public opinion. It also resolves a common public opinion problem, that polls require significant resources. Second, the research reveals that online public opinion is different from opinions expressed in conventional polls. It is more volatile and responds to the world more quickly than a poll. From the results, online public opinion provides a different political landscape compared to traditional offline surveys. Online attitudes can explain a president’s legislative success in South Korea, while the old measure has no significance. Moreover, the two types of public opinion have different determinants, which indicates that distinct issues affect a particular public. The dissertation demonstrates how to measure and utilize online public opinion. It also provides evidence that online attitudes deliver different perspectives about a political landscape.

    더보기

    목차 (Table of Contents)

    • Chapter 1. Introduction 1
    • A. Public Opinion and Its Unchanged Significance in Politics 1
    • B. The Approach 4
    • Chapter 2. Literature Review 7
    • A. Understanding Public Opinion in Politics 7
    • Chapter 1. Introduction 1
    • A. Public Opinion and Its Unchanged Significance in Politics 1
    • B. The Approach 4
    • Chapter 2. Literature Review 7
    • A. Understanding Public Opinion in Politics 7
    • B. Political Interests in Presidential Approval 9
    • C. Studies of Presidential Approval in South Korea 11
    • D. Online Public Opinion and its Qualities 12
    • E. Approaches to Estimate Online Public Opinion 14
    • Chapter 3. Method to Measure Public Opinion Using Online Texts 17
    • A. Structure of the Method 18
    • B. Nature of Data Gathered 20
    • C. Translating Words to Language of a Computer 25
    • D. Making a Machine to Learn a Human Mind 28
    • Chapter 4. Assessment of the Method 36
    • A. Comparing the Performance of Different Combinations 36
    • B. Predicting Public Opinion Towards the President in the Online World 43
    • C. Performance of Online Public Opinion Compared to Traditional Polls 49
    • D. Understanding of the Method and its Outcomes 64
    • Chapter 5. Application I: Presidential Approval and Legislative Success 66
    • A. Legislative Success and Its Influencers 68
    • B. Models to Demonstrate Impact to Legislative Success 70
    • C. Explaining Relationship between Factors and Legislative Success 79
    • D. Summary 92
    • Chapter 6. Application II: What Determines Presidential Approval 96
    • A. Potential Determinants of Presidential Approval 98
    • B. How to Illustrate Effect of Influencing Factors 100
    • C. Empirical Analysis on Impact of Determinants 107
    • D. Summary 118
    • Chapter 7. New Technology, New Data, and the Future of Politics 122
    • A. Adaptation of New Data and Technology 123
    • B. Limitations and Future Research 126
    • References 128
    • Abstract in Korean Language 140
    • Appendix I. Basic Statistics of Data Sets 142
    • Appendix II. Basic Statistics of Training Data Sets 144
    • Appendix III. Hand-Coding Guidelines 147
    • Appendix IV. Logic Trees of All Combinations 149
    더보기

    참고문헌 (Reference)

    1. The macro polity, R. S.MacKuenM. B.Stimson , J . A ., Cambridge University Press, , 2002

    2. Presidential power, R. E., New York : New American Library, , 1960

    3. Long short-term memory, Hochreiter , S.Schmidhuber , J ., Neural computation9 ( 8 ) , 1735-1780, , 1997

    4. The Presidential Agenda, R. T., Sources of Executive Influence in Congress , Columbus, , 2006

    5. Attention is all you need, Vaswani , A.Shazeer , N.Parmar , N.Uszkoreit , J.Jones , L.GomezA. N....Polosukhin , I ., In Advances in neural information processing systems ( pp . 5998-6008, , 2017

    6. Understanding public opinion, C. D., a guide for newspapermen and newspaper readersWC Brown Co .., , 1952

    7. Public opinion in a democracy, G. H., Princeton University Press,

    8. Do the polls serve democracy ?, RanneyJ. C., Public Opinion Quarterly10 ( 3 ) , 349-360, , 1946

    9. How ( not ) to predict elections, P. T.Mustafaraj , E.Gayo-Avello , D., Proceedings of the 2011 IEEE Third International Conference on Privacy , Security , Risk and Trust and 2011 IEEE Third International Conference on Social Computing ( pp . 165-171 ) . IEEE, , 2011

    10. Public Evaluations of Presidents, Newman , B.Gronke , P., The Oxford Handbook of the American Presidency, , 2009

    1. The macro polity, R. S.MacKuenM. B.Stimson , J . A ., Cambridge University Press, , 2002

    2. Presidential power, R. E., New York : New American Library, , 1960

    3. Long short-term memory, Hochreiter , S.Schmidhuber , J ., Neural computation9 ( 8 ) , 1735-1780, , 1997

    4. The Presidential Agenda, R. T., Sources of Executive Influence in Congress , Columbus, , 2006

    5. Attention is all you need, Vaswani , A.Shazeer , N.Parmar , N.Uszkoreit , J.Jones , L.GomezA. N....Polosukhin , I ., In Advances in neural information processing systems ( pp . 5998-6008, , 2017

    6. Understanding public opinion, C. D., a guide for newspapermen and newspaper readersWC Brown Co .., , 1952

    7. Public opinion in a democracy, G. H., Princeton University Press,

    8. Do the polls serve democracy ?, RanneyJ. C., Public Opinion Quarterly10 ( 3 ) , 349-360, , 1946

    9. How ( not ) to predict elections, P. T.Mustafaraj , E.Gayo-Avello , D., Proceedings of the 2011 IEEE Third International Conference on Privacy , Security , Risk and Trust and 2011 IEEE Third International Conference on Social Computing ( pp . 165-171 ) . IEEE, , 2011

    10. Public Evaluations of Presidents, Newman , B.Gronke , P., The Oxford Handbook of the American Presidency, , 2009

    11. Economic voting : an introduction, Lewis-BeckM. S.Paldam , M., Electoral Studies , 19 ( 2-3 ) , 113-121, , 2000

    12. Toward a science of public opinion, Allport , F., Public Opinion Quarterly1 ( 1 ) , 7 23. ?,

    13. April 6RNN , LSTM & GRU [ Blog post, dprogrammer ., Retrieved from http, , 2019

    14. Population bias in geotagged tweets, Malik , M. M.Lamba , H.Nakos , C.Pfeffer , J ., People , 1 ( 3,759.710 ) , 3-759, , 2015

    15. Presidents and the prospective voter, Norpoth , H., The Journal of Politics58 ( 3 ) , 776-792, , 1996

    16. A neural probabilistic language model, Bengio , Y.Ducharme , R.Vincent , P.Jauvin , C., Journal of machine learning research , 3 ( Feb ) , 1137-1155, , 2003

    17. Big data , social media , and protest, Tucker , J . A.Nagler , J.MacDuffee , M. , MetzgerP. B.Penfold-Brown , D.Bonneau , R., Computational social science , 199, , 2016

    18. Sentiment analysis and opinion mining, Liu , Bing, Chicago , IL : Morgan & Claypool . Loria , S.TextBlob Documentation . Release 0.15 , 2, , 20122018

    19. War , presidents , and public opinion, Mueller , J. E., John Wiley & Sons, , 1973

    20. The demographics of social media users, Duggan , M.Brenner , J ., Vol . 14 ) . Washington , DC : Pew Research Center 's Internet & American Life Project, , 20132012

    21. The president in the legislative arena, J. R.Fleisher , R., University of Chicago Press, , 1990

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