(The) U.S. Counter-Terrorism policy as a geopolitical code and Global Jihadism : Analytical Description from 1989~2017

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The 9.11 terror attack by Al-Qaeda in 2001 changed the course of history. Many pundits asserted that it was “The Clash of Civilizations as a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy.” Countering Global Jihadism has become the top agenda of the U.S. and the International Community. The U.S., under the Geopolitical Code of “War on Terror,” led the International Coalitions to eliminate and contain the threat. The “battles” were successful, but the “war” was far from over. The Obama Administration shifted its approach with the Geopolitical Code of “Non-Violent Pluralism,” which also fell through.
The Global Jihadists persistently Evolved, in order to survive the Counter-Terrorism measures of the U.S. Coalitions. It was naturally impossible to eliminate Global Jihadism. To make matters worse, the conflict – in terms of terror attacks by the Global Jihadists and the military campaigns of the U.S. Coalitions as a reaction – escalated even further; mutual Tit-for-Tat Reactions were gradually escalating the conflict into a larger scale.
This dissertation aims to analytically describe the relationship between the U.S. Counter-Terrorism Policy – in terms of the Geopolitical Code – and Global Jihadism. In other words, the aim was in interpreting the reason for the Evolution of Global Jihadism and tracing the Evolution Process to find the pattern, which was induced by the “changes” in the U.S. Counter-Terrorism Policies. The primary focus was on displaying the escalation of enmity through a “repeated” sequence of actions: Action → Reaction → Amplification (Reaction); Vicious Circle of Tit-for-Tat Conflict Escalation.
In order to verify and demonstrate this cycle, “Geopolitical Code Model” has been applied as the Theoretical Framework. Since Geopolitical Code “orientates” a government policy, meaning that it makes the course of the policy, it gives relative strength for analysis; by analyzing the Geopolitical Code of a particular U.S. Administration, it can provide a comprehensive idea on its direction and vision.
In doing so, the Historical Case Study Method has been applied. The period of the research has been set from 1989 to 2017 (the principal reason for setting the starting point to 1989 was because this period marks the starting point of Global Jihadism, with the birth of Al-Qaeda). The main ideas and theoretical background of the U.S. Administrations’ Geopolitical Codes were analytically observed and compared. From chapter four to seven, the historical context of the U.S. Geopolitical Codes was described. In addition, a quantitative tool, the Contents Analysis, is used as a sub-method. In order to deduct the Geopolitical Code of the U.S. Administrations, official statements and documents were analyzed. On the other hand, official statements and online magazines of the Global Jihadists were explored.
The research result suggests that the U.S. Counter-Terrorism Policies were the output of each Geopolitical Codes, which were designed, represented, and projected by each U.S. Administrations. Also, it has been found that the Geopolitical Codes had to be modified accordingly to the Evolution of Global Jihadism; this means that the Evolution of Global Jihadism vis-à-vis U.S. Counter-Terrorism Policy was typically a mutual Tit-for-Tat game, and an unending Cycle.
These results provide an important implication to us. Even though DAESH has been weakened and dispersed, unless the environment that reinforces the spread of Global Jihadism changes, the Global Jihadists will strike back again anytime, from anywhere.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

2001년 알-카에다에 의한 ‘9.11 테러’는 미국뿐만 아니라 인류 역사의 변곡점으로 작용하였다. 많은 전문가들은 이를 ‘문명의 충돌의 자기충족적 예언’의 현실화라고 평가하였다. 이로 인해 ‘글로벌 지하디즘,’ 특히 대테러 이슈는 미국을 포함한 국제사회의 최우선 과제로 격상되었다. 미국은 “테러와의 전쟁”이라는 지정학적 코드 아래, 국제동맹군을 결성하여 대테러 전선에 뛰어들었다. 전투는 가히 성공적이었다. 하지만 전쟁은 쉽사리 종식되지 않았다. 오바마 행정부는 “비폭력적 다원주의”라는 새로운 지정학적 코드를 제시하였으나 역시 실패하고 말았다.
‘글로벌 지하디스트’들은 미국 주도 동맹군의 ‘대응’으로부터 생존하기 위해 끊임없이 “진화”하기 시작했다. ‘글로벌 지하디즘’을 뿌리뽑는 것은 현실적으로 불가능한 과제였다. 설상가상으로, 분쟁 양상은 보다 격화되었다. 국제테러의 빈도 및 잔혹성은 지속적으로 증대되었고, 이에 따른 미국의 대응은 보다 강화되었다. 상호 보복 조치 격의 ‘작용-반작용’ 양상은 분쟁을 더욱 심화시키는 데 일조하였다.
본 논문의 목적은 이러한 미국의 지정학적 코드에 기반한 대테러 정책과 ‘글로벌 지하디즘’ 간의 관계를 분석하는 것이다. 즉, ‘글로벌 지하디즘’ 이라는 현상이 태동한 원인을 규명하고, 이러한 현상의 ‘진화’를 야기한 미국 대테러정책의 변화 과정을 추적하고자 한다.
이러한 양상을 분석하기 위한 이론적 틀로서 ‘지정학적 코드 모델’이 사용되었다. 지정학적 코드는 ‘특정 국가가 세계를 향해 자신을 투사하는 방식’으로, 이를 통해 자국의 비전, 정책 방향/수단 등을 포괄적으로 표상한다. 즉, 미국의 지정학적 코드를 분석함으로써 미국의 대테러 정책이 수립된 배경, 과정, 의미를 도출하고, ‘글로벌 지하디즘’의 ‘진화’에 발맞춰 이러한 지정학적 코드가 어떻게 변모/발전되어 왔는지 추적하였다.
본 연구를 위해 ‘역사적 사례 연구’ 방법론이 적용되었다. 사례의 범위는 ‘글로벌 지하디즘’의 시초인 알-카에다가 탄생한 1989년에서 2017년으로 한정되었다. 특히 제4장에서 7장까지 해당 기간 미국 각 행정부가 어떻게 각자의 지정학적 코드를 구상하고 실현하였는지 그 역사적 맥락을 분석적으로 제시하였다.
이와 더불어, 양적연구방법론 중 하나인 ‘컨텐츠 분석’ 기법을 보조적으로 적용하였다. 미국의 지정학적 코드를 구체적으로 도출하기 위해 각각의 미국 행정부의 공식 문서 및 성명/연설 등을 분석하였고, ‘글로벌 지하디스트’들의 입장을 정리하기 위해 공식 성명 및 온라인 잡지의 내용을 분석하였다.
본 연구를 통해 두가지 시사점이 도출되었다. 첫째로, 미국의 대테러 정책이 각 행정부가 세밀하게 설계하고 표상한 결과물이라는 점이 확인되었다. 각 행정부의 ‘국가안보전략보고서(NSS: National Security Strategy)’ 세부 내용이 이를 뒷받침한다. 둘째로, 미국의 대테러 정책과 ‘글로벌 지하디즘’은 반응-반작용 양상이 반복됨에 따라 분쟁이 심화되는 악순환 패턴을 보여준다는 점이 발견되었다. 주요 성명 및 문서 분석 결과, 양측의 반복되는 상호 적대감 표출이 증폭기제로 작용한다는 점이 확인되었다. 특히 아직까지도 이러한 악순환의 고리가 끊어지지 않았음을 시사한다.
이러한 사실을 고려했을 때, 비록 ‘이슬람 국가(ISIL)’가 현재 전반적으로 와해되어 있기는 하나, 역내 안보환경이 전반적으로 개선되지 않는다면 지금까지의 악순환은 언제든지 반복될 수 있다는 점을 기억해야할 것이다.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION. 1
• 1. Hypothetical Framework. 1
• 1.1. Research Background. 1
• 1.2. Research Questions and Hypothesis. 9
• 2. Theoretical Framework: Scope of Studies and Context. 12
• 3. Outline of Research. 29
• CHAPTER II. CONTEXT OF GLOBAL JIHADISM. 33
• 1. Defining Jihad: Concept and Origin. 35
• 2. Misuse of Jihad Concept. 42
• 2.1. Islamic Extremism and Jihadism. 43
• 2.2. Objective Interpretation of Jihad and Arbitrary Designation of Terrorists. 50
• CHAPTER III. GRAND STRATEGY OF THE U.S. AND THE GEOPOLITICAL CODE. 57
• 1. Understanding the U.S. Grand Strategy. 58
• 1.1. Definition and Significance of a Grand Strategy. 58
• 1.2. Constituent Factors of a Grand Strategy. 60
• 1.2.1. National Interests. 60
• 1.2.2. Threat Perception: Knowing the Enemy. 63
• 2. Geopolitical Code: Articulation of a Grand Strategy. 67
• 2.1. Definition of a Geopolitical Code. 68
• 2.2. The Significance of the Geopolitical Code Model. 69
• 3. Projection of the Geopolitical Codes. 74
• CHAPTER IV. PROJECTION OF THE GEOPOLITICAL CODES: BRIEF BACKGROUND OVERVIEW UNTIL THE COLD WAR ERA. 76
• 1. Pre-Cold War Era. 78
• 1.1. Washington Doctrine: Non-Entangling Alliances. 78
• 1.2. Monroe Doctrine: Securing the Region. 81
• 1.3. The Dawn of the American Century. 85
• 1.4. Geopolitical Code during both World Wars. 89
• 1.4.1. Geopolitical Code during World War I. 90
• 1.4.2. Geopolitical Code during World War II. 94
• 2. Cold War Era: War on “Evil Empire”. 97
• 3. Afghanistan War and the Birth of Jihadism: The Mujahidin Movement. 104
• CHAPTER V. GEOPOLITICAL CODE IN THE POST-COLD WAR ERA: THE CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS AND COUNTER-TERRORISM POLICY. 110
• 1. The End of the Cold War and the “New World Order”. 111
• 2. The Rise of the Neocons’ Geopolitical Code: “The Clash of Civilizations”. 116
• 2.1. Concept and Origin. 116
• 2.2. Politicizing Idea into Policy. 120
• 2.2.1. The Rise of the Neocons. 120
• 2.2.2. Materializing Counter-Terrorism Policy. 125
• 3. Projection of the Geopolitical Code. 126
• 3.1. George H. W. Bush Administration: The Gulf War and its Aftermath. 127
• 3.2. Bill Clinton Administration: Protraction of Gulf War Syndrome. 132
• CHAPTER VI. GEOPOLITICAL CODE OF THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION: WAR ON TERROR. 144
• 1. Concept and Origin of “War on Terror”. 145
• 2. Representation of the Geopolitical Code: The National Security Strategy 2002. 148
• 2.1. Background. 148
• 2.2. The National Security Strategy 2002. 150
• 3. Theoretical Review: Supporting Concepts and Principles of the Bush Doctrine. 153
• 3.1. Neo-Conservative Principles. 155
• 3.2. Preemptive War. 159
• 3.3. The Greater Middle East Initiative. 163
• 4. Projection of the Geopolitical Code. 166
• 4.1. 2001 War in Afghanistan. 167
• 4.2. 2003 Invasion of Iraq. 169
• CHAPTER VII. GEOPOLITICAL CODE OF THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION: NON-VIOLENT PLURALISM. 176
• 1. Concept and Origin of “Non-Violent Pluralism”. 177
• 2. Representation of the Geopolitical Code: A New Beginning (Cairo Speech 2009). 182
• 2.1. Background. 182
• 2.2. Cairo Speech 2009. 184
• 3. CVE: Supporting Concept of the Obama Doctrine. 188
• 4. Projection of the Geopolitical Code. 194
• 4.1. Force Majeure: Irresistible Disasters. 194
• 4.2. Death of Osama bin Laden and the Conversion & Diffusion of Global Jihadism. 199
• 4.3. Evolution & Transformation: Birth of the “Caliphate” and “New Terrorism”. 202
• CHAPTER VIII. OVERALL ANALYSIS: THE U.S. COUNTER-TERRORISM POLICY AND GLOBAL JIHADISM. 209
• 1. Analytic Model: Conflict Escalation Tracing. 209
• 2. Evolution of Global Jihadism vis-à-vis U.S. Counter-Terrorism Policy. 213
• 2.1. Mujahidin Movement, “The Clash of Civilizations”, and the Evolution of Al-Qaeda 1.0. 213
• 2.2. 9.11 Terror, “War on Terror”, and the Evolution of Al-Qaeda 2.0. 216
• 2.3. “Non-Violent Pluralism”, the Arab Spring, and the Evolution of Al-Qaeda 3.0. 219
• 2.4. Birth of the “Caliphate” (ISIL 4.0) and the Shift in the U.S. Geopolitical Code. 223
• 3. Overall Review on the U.S. Geopolitical Code against Global Jihadism. 227
• 3.1. Geopolitical Code of “The Clash of Civilizations”. 228
• 3.2. Geopolitical Code of “War on Terror”. 232
• 3.3. Geopolitical Code of “Non-Violent Pluralism”. 236
• CHAPTER IX. CONCLUSION. 243
• BIBLIOGRAPHY. 253