북한의 핵ㆍ미사일 위협과 군사적 대응전략에 관한 연구 = Military Countermeasures to North Korea's Threats of Nuclear and Missile

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Military Countermeasures to
North Korea's Threats of Nuclear and Missile

Kim, Do Hoon
Advisor : Prof. Kim Joo-sam, Ph.D.
Department of Military Science,
Graduate School of Policy, Chosun University



The North Korean government invested from 3 to 8 billion dollars to develop nuclear weapons with the purpose of communizing South Korea in 20 years and has visualized its power so it could use its nuclear weapons soon. It has mobilized all available national power to secure its status as a nuclear power. On January 6, 2016. North Korea declared it had developed an H-bomb and carried out its fourth nuclear test which worried international society. In spite of consistent and powerful pressure and control imposed by international society, it again carried out a fifth nuclear test on September 9 of the same year. It is estimated that it has between 23 to 40㎏ of plutonium and 120 to 320㎏ of weapon grade uranium(U235) although there is no official information on North Korea's ability as a nuclear power. Based on the estimates above, it is calculated that North Korea has a total of between 7 and 52 nuclear weapons including between 4 and 20 plutonium based weapons and between 3 and 32 uranium based weapons. In looking at North Korea's nuclear power, based on the assumption that the present conditions will continue, it will have between 6 and 28 plutonium based weapons and between 7 and 64 uranium based weapons, a total of between 13 and 92 weapons by 2020. In particular, it is forecast that North Korea will strategically arrange a minimum amount needed by 2020. Although North Korea is developing nuclear weapons under the conditions that it is isolated in technology and materials, as it has conducted five nuclear tests in the ten years since 2006, it is reasonable to infer that North Korea's real disposition to nuclear weapons is imminent.
As well, North Korea has continued to develop missiles which can carry nuclear warheads. It successfully launched a long-distance missile named "Gwangmyongsung No. 4" ten months after the fourth nuclear test, and it is deemed to be concentrating its efforts on the development of SLBM technology which is difficult to detect. It is estimated that North Korea has more than 300 to 900 missiles that are at the level of ICBM. The threat is nuclear, but when nuclear warheads are combined with missiles, the urgency increases. North Korea has concentrated its efforts on the development of quality and strategic increases such as improvement of IRBMs, completion of ICBMs through the development of artificial satellites, and the development of SLBMs rather than simply a quantitative increase of missiles.
Accordingly, its threats will differ in quality. In considering the present situation, areas between 3,000 and 4,000Km from North Korea will be at risk of nuclear attack within two or three years, and approximately five years later, the whole world may be threatened by North Korean nuclear missiles. North Korea will try to obtain nuclear capability as soon as possible by mobilizing all its resources and ability they can, despite extreme economic and diplomatic difficulty, and accordingly, it can be said that the threat will be significant and imminent.
Thus, North Korea's nuclear weapons are a direct and serious threat to South Korea and the central powers regardless of it being recognized as a nuclear power by international society. When North Korea has nuclear power available and presents a nuclear threat to the world in the situation of a military crisis, it is believed that it can secure safety in its system and gain diplomatically advantageous conditions, through which it can overcome the collapse of its system. In this situation, the leverage that South Korea can deal with a nuclear missile threat by North Korea will be to gain controling power through military means.
In considering military means used against nuclear missiles, the first thing to consider is the destruction of portable and fixed-type launch platforms with nuclear capability. To deal with this, South Korea should complete a KILL-Chain, a first strike system, as soon as possible.
The next thing to consider is consistent progress of KAMD and defenses from missiles through THAAD. Although the efficacy of the Kill-Chain increases, it is hard to destroy nuclear missiles completely. So, to defend against nuclear missiles which survive the Kill-Chain is very important. Also, North Korea's nuclear provocations will be blocked when psychological fear as a threat of KMPR is given to the opponent. In particular, it is very important to make the North Korean government and its military leaders aware that KMPR will be executed without fail.
Finally, regardless of the U.S.'s increased control, South Korea should have an independent military capability which can make a decisive strike on North Koreas leadership. The people of South Korea should have a firm will that they will defeat the enemy through a strong and quick response to North Korea's threats even though much damage is received. When the people show absolute reliability and support for the government and military force and consolidate as one, the Korean army will punish North Korea's threat strongly and control its reckless provocation and misjudgement.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 목　　　차
• 제 1 장 서 론 1
• 제 1 절 연구의 목적 1
• 제 2 절 연구의 범위 및 방법과 구성 5
• 제 2 장 핵 억제전략 이론적 고찰 8
• 제 1 절 억제의 개념과 유형 8
• 1. 억제의 개념 8
• 2. 응징적 억제 10
• 3. 거부적 억제 11
• 제 2 절 억제의 성립조건 14
• 1. 의사전달 14
• 2. 능력 16
• 3. 신뢰성 17
• 제 3 장 북한의 핵·미사일 능력 및 위협 평가 20
• 제 1 절 북한의 핵 능력 20
• 1. 북한의 핵개발 경과 20
• 2. 북한의 핵능력 평가 24
• 제 2 절 북한의 미사일 능력 37
• 1. 북한의 미사일 개발 경과 37
• 2. 북한의 미사일 능력 평가 41
• 제 3 절 소결론 : 북한 핵ㆍ미사일 위협 평가 43
• 제 4 장 군사적 대응전략 53
• 제 1 절 한국군 핵미사일 억제태세 구축 53
• 1. 타격순환체계 : Kill-Chain 53
• 2. 한국형 미사일방어체제 : KAMD 56
• 3. 대량응징보복 : KMPR 59
• 제 2 절 미국의 핵 확장억제 실효성 보장 62
• 1. 고고도 미사일방어체계 : THAAD 62
• 2. 미국 전략무기의 한반도 상시순환배치 64
• 제 3 절 선제타격 및 응징보복의 신뢰성 확보 66
• 제 5 장 결 론 76
• 참고문헌 81