Denuclearization after Kim Jong-il's Death and the Chicken Game in Northeast Asia 2012-2014

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

After the passing of Kim Jong-il in December 2011, the new presidency under his son, Kim Jong-un was under scrutiny. Scholars and practitioners alike debated whether there are chances that he would direct policies of the DPRK in a more cooperative, norm-abiding path that will put an end to the nuclear issue in the Peninsula, or that it would live up to the legacy of “nuclear diplomacy” that has secured the regime survival for three generations thus far. Coinciding with the leadership transitions also taking place in China, Japan and the ROK, this paper seeks to examine the prospect and solution for nuclear talks within the Six Parties in Northeast Asia, specifically on why pursuing the policy to denuclearize the DPRK will not result to progress in negotiations itself, using the framework of Chicken game.

Keywords: North Korea, denuclearization, Chicken game, game theory, Kim Jong-un, Northeast Asia

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION 1
• 1.1 Background 1
• 1.2 Research Question 7
• 1.3 Theoretical Framework 7
• 1.4 Hypothesis 13
• 1.5 Methodology 13
• 1.6 Purpose and Significance of Research 15
• 1.7 List of Contents 16
• CHAPTER II. DPRK UNDER KIM JONG-UN’S LEADERSHIP 2012-2014 18
• CHAPTER III. DPRK POLICIES OF THE U.S, CHINA, THE ROK, JAPAN AND RUSSIA 2012-2014 29
• 3.1 The United States’ Policy towards the DPRK 2012-2014 29
• 3.2 China’s Policy towards the DPRK 2012-2014 36
• 3.3 The Republic of Korea’s Policy towards the DPRK 2012-2014 45
• 3.4 Japan’s Policy towards the DPRK 2012-2014 51
• 3.5 Russia’s Policy towards the DPRK 2012-2014 55
• CHAPTER IV. ANALYSIS: CHICKEN GAME AND THE DPRK’S NUCLEAR BRINKMANSHIP 61
• 4.1 Denuclearization as Policy Aim of the U.S, China, the ROK, Japan and Russia 61
• 4.2 Denuclearization Viability from the Perspective of Chicken Game 67
• 4.3 “Swerve-swerve” Condition as Possible Solution? 77
• CHAPTER V. CONCLUSION 81
• Bibliography 86
• Abstract (in Korean) 91