EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF GHANA TRADE POLICY (2005) : A DIFFERENCE-IN-DIFFERENCE APPROACH

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Analyzing bilateral trade between Ghana and 90 countries, the study uses a panel setting of the difference-in-difference method (with heteroskedasticity-robust fixed effects) to estimate the impact of the trade policy (export-led industrialization policy) which was implemented in 2005 on exports and total trade. A chow test is conducted to confirm the presence of a structural break before and after the implementation of the trade policy. Considering the fact that only a few (about 5) bilateral trade agreements were concluded between Ghana and other countries, the study assumes a natural control for tariff reductions and focuses on other trade costs. The studies shows negative relationship between trade costs and exports and total trade, with the trade policy leading to increase in exports and expansion of trade. With increase in bilateral trade agreements leading to reduction in tariffs, this calls for a more important focus on other non-tariff measures and measures to improve value addition.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CHAPTER ONE 1
• INTRODUCTION 1
• 1.1 Statement of the Problem 4
• 1.2 Aims and Objectives of the Study 4
• 1.3 Significance of the Study 5
• 1.4 Scope of the Study 5
• 1.5 Limitations of the Study 5
• CHAPTER TWO 6
• LITERATURE REVIEW 6
• 2.0 Introduction 6
• 2.1 Heckscher-Ohlin 6
• 2.2 New Trade Theory 6
• 2.3 Trade Policy and Export Growth 8
• 2.4 Growth and Trade Policy 8
• 2.5 Trade policy and Diversification (markets and products) 9
• 2.5 Trade costs 10
• 2.6 Real Exchange Rates 11
• CHAPTER THREE 13
• REVIEW OF TRADE POLICY 13
• 3.0 Introduction 13
• 3.1 Economic 13
• 3.2 Trade Policy “Pre-2005” 14
• 3.3 Trade Policy 2005 15
• 3.4 Export Growth 17
• 3.4.1 Geographic Orientation 18
• 3.5 Imports Growth 19
• 3.5.1 Geographical Orientation-Imports 20
• 3.6 Trade Costs 21
• 3.6.1 Measures 22
• 3.6.2 Trade agreements and Tariffs 23
• CHAPTER FOUR 26
• METHODOLOGY AND DATA 26
• 4.0 Introduction 26
• 4.1 Empirical Strategy 26
• 4.2 Model Specification 26
• 4.3 Chow Test (1960) 28
• 4.4 Difference –in- Difference 29
• 4.5 Estimation 30
• 4.6 Data 32
• 4.7 Sampled Countries 33
• CHAPTER FIVE 34
• EMPIRICAL RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 34
• 5.0 Introduction 34
• 5.1 Presentation of Results 34
• 5.1.1 Descriptive 34
• 5.1.2 Structural Change (Chow Test) 34
• 5.1.3 Difference-in-Difference 35
• 5.2 Key Findings 38
• 5.3 Discussions 39
• 5.3.1 Export Growth 39
• 5.3.2 Total Trade 40
• 5.3.3 Trade Costs 40
• 5.3.4 Foreign Market Diversification 41
• CHAPTER SIX 43
• POLICY EVALUATION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 43
• 6.0 Introduction 43
• 6.1 Evaluation 43
• 6.2 Recommendations 44
• 6.2.1 Policy 44
• 6.2.2 Further Study 46
• REFERENCES 47
• APPENDIX 1 51
• APPENDIX 2 53