노태우·김대중 정부의 대북정책 비교 : 국제환경ㆍ국내정치ㆍ정책결정자 요인을 중심으로 = A Comparative Study on Roh Tae-Woo and Kim Dae-Jung Administration's Policy Towards North Korea|RISS 상세보기

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study paid attention to the point that the policies toward North Korea of Roh Tae-woo government(Feb. 1988-Feb. 1993) and Kim Dae-jung government(Feb. 1998-Feb. 2003) had the strongest will to improve South and North Korea relationship among the Korean governments in history. Hence, this study divides the process of pushing ahead with policy toward North Korea into [pushing ahead period→stability period→decline period], and analyze the international environmental and domestic political factors effected on the policy toward North Korea by each period, and further examine how policy deciders coped with them. Moreover, the common points and differences of policy decider factors shown in the process of pushing ahead with policy toward North Korea are compared.
Roh Tae-woo government used actively international environmental factors in pushing ahead period. President Roh Tae-woo could push ahead independent foreign policy, which was his policy philosophy, in the name of 'policy toward North' in the autonomous diplomatic space made by 'relative negligence' strategy of the United States. Roh Tae-woo government in stability period secured the regime's legitimacy through the success of Seoul Olympic, the anticipatory acceptance of unification movement and so on, and also ensured the strong driving force for the diplomacy toward North and policy toward North Korea by attainment of legislative power through the merger of three parties. As a result, this government established diplomatic relations with Eastern Bloc socialist states, including Soviet Union, and drew the monumental result of South and North Korea relationship through 'simultaneous admission of South and North Korea to the UN' and 'the conclusion of Inter-Korean Basic Agreement'. By these results, the constraint factors, including the resistance of cold-war conservative forces against the will to improve South and North Korea relationship of Roh Tae-woo government and the criticism of civil society on the merger of three parties could be overcome. However, North Korea's military provocation, the annulment of South-North Dialogue, the suspicion of nuclear weapons development and so on, strained South and North Korea relationship in the decline period, while the government and the ruling party became rapidly conservative, as Park Cheor-eon left the political stage and Kim Jong-hwi, hardliner to North Korea, appeared on the front stage. Furthermore, early appearance of Kim Yeong-sam, a candidate for the coming presidential election, accelerated the concentration of the cold-war conservative forces, as the lame duck syndrome of President Roh Tae-woo progressed swiftly, the desertion of conservative officialdom from President's power began to emerge.
The time of international environment formed in pushing ahead period of Kim Dae-jung government can be told as 'the reestablishment period of international order'. As the 'engagement and enlargement' strategy, which was pushed ahead by Clinton administration at that time, went on in the same context with Sunshine Policy of Kim Dae-jung government, the policy toward North Korea of his government gained active support of the United States. The ruling coalition disintegrated by the conflict inside the government and ruling party for the policy toward North Korea after stability period, by which unfavorable political situation of minority government was formed. Moreover, as South-South sharp conflict happened by 'ladling-out controversy', the color debates toward Kim Dae-jung government were set off. However, as South-North exchange programs swiftly developed after '6.15 joint declaration', the approval rate for the policy toward North Korea of Kim Dae-jung government exceeded 90%, by which President Kim Dae-jung overcame the constraint factor of color debate based on people's strong support. In decline period, South and North Korea relationship was strained by the 'hostile policy toward North Korea' of the Bush administration in 2001. What was worse, the corruption of President's close associates and the suspicion of illegal remittance to North Korea took a toll on President's leadership. Nevertheless, President Kim Dae-jung overcame constraint factors at home and abroad based on the philosophy of policy toward North Korea on the foundation of the dialogue and cooperation between South and North Korea, and Lim Dong-won played role as the control tower of policy toward North Korea throughout the President's term to enable to push ahead the consistent engagement policy toward North Korea.
The top policy deciders of both governments had the will to improve South and North Korea relationship. They intended to resolve independently the problems on the Korean Peninsula by South and North Korea, the parties directly concerned, using actively 'autonomous diplomatic space' caused by post-Cold War era. Even though the resistance of cold-war conservative forces and South-South conflict constrained the policy toward North Korea, 'reorganization to majority of Roh Tae-woo government' and 'secured high support rate for the policy toward North Korea of Kim Dae-jung government' became the foundation, with which policy deciders of both governments were able to push ahead stably with policy toward North Korea. The responses of both governments to constraint factors, which were the tough policy toward North Korea of the United States and Korean lame-duck government, showed differently.
As the United States intervened in the problems on the Korean Peninsula due to the suspicion of nuclear weapons development by North Korea, Roh Tae-woo government faced the conservative swing of government and the ruling party, and the resistance of conservative officialdom. In addition, as Kim Yeong-sam, a candidate for the coming presidential election, took a differentiated strategy from Roh Tae-woo government, the pushing ahead with policy toward North Korea was put on the brakes. Whereas, Kim Dae-jung government, in spite of provocation of North Korea at the end of its term, used the support rate of exceeding average 80% until end of its term as justification of pushing ahead with policy toward North Korea. Furthermore, comparing the consistent pushing ahead with policy toward North Korea through Lim Dong-won, with rapidly switching the direction of policy upon the appearance of Kim Jong-hwi of Roh Tae-woo government, it was shown that the differences of dispositions and roles of both governments' policy deciders worked critically on the consistent pushing ahead with policy toward North Korea.

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국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구의 목적은 노태우 정부와 김대중 정부 시기 양 정부의 대북정책을 촉진 또는 제약했던 국제환경적 요인, 국내정치적 요인, 그리고 정책결정자 요인을 중심으로 각각의 요인이 어떤 역할을 하였는지 고찰하는 데 있다. 이를 위해 위의 세 요인이 대북정책을 촉진 또는 제약했던 시기를 1기-2기-3기로 구분하여 각 시기별로 대북정책의 추진요인이 어떻게 나타났지 알아보고 양 정부의 대북정책 추진과정에서 나타난 각 요인의 특성을 규명하고자 한다.
노태우 정부는 1기(1988년-89년)에 국제환경적 요인을 적극적으로 활용하였다. 노태우 대통령은 미국의 ‘상대적 방치(relative negligence)’ 전략이 만들어 준 자율적 외교공간에서 ‘북방정책’을 추진하였다. 2기(1990년-91년)에 접어들면서 노태우 정부는 서울올림픽의 성공과 통일운동의 선제적 수용 등을 통해 정권의 정당성을 확보하였고 3당 합당을 통해 입법권한을 쟁취함으로써 북방외교와 대북정책의 강력한 추진력을 확보하였다. 그 결과 소련을 비롯한 동구권 사회주의 국가들과 수교관계를 맺어 나갔고 ‘남북한 UN 동시 가입’과 ‘남북기본합의서 체결’을 통해 남북관계의 기념비적인 성과를 도출했다. 이러한 성과를 바탕으로 노태우 대통령은 남북관계의 개선에 대한 냉전적 보수세력의 저항과 3당합당에 대한 시민사회의 비판이라는 제약요인을 극복할 수 있었다. 그러나 임기 말 북한의 군사적 도발과 남북회담의 파기, 핵무기 개발 의혹 등이 남북관계를 경색시켰고, 대북온건파인 박철언이 퇴장한 뒤 대북강경파인 김종휘가 전면에 등장하면서 정부여당이 급격히 보수화되었다. 또한 차기 대선후보인 김영삼의 조기 등장은 냉전적 보수세력의 집결을 촉진시켰다. 노태우 대통령의 레임덕 현상과 함께 보수적 관료집단의 권력이반현상이 나타나기 시작하면서 3기(1992년-93년)를 맞이하였다.
김대중 정부의 1기(1998년-99년)에 형성된 국제환경은 ‘국제질서의 재정립기’라고 정의할 수 있다. 당시 클린턴 행정부가 추진한 ‘관여와 확대’(engagement and enlargement)전략이 김대중 정부의 햇볕정책과 맥을 같이 하면서 미국의 적극적인 지지를 얻게 되었다. 그러나 2기(2000년)로 접어들면서 대북정책에 대한 정부여당 내부의 갈등에 의해 지배연합이 파기되고 여소야대라는 불리한 정국이 형성되었다. 또한 ‘퍼주기 논란’에 의해 남남갈등이 첨예하게 일어나면서 김대중 정부를 향한 색깔논쟁이 점화되었다. 하지만 ‘6.15공동선언’ 이후 남북교류사업이 빠르게 전개되면서 김대중 정부의 대북정책지지율이 90%를 넘어섰고 김대중 대통령은 대북정책에 대한 국민적 지지를 바탕으로 색깔논쟁이라는 제약요인을 극복해 나갔다. 2001년 부시행정부의 출범 이후 등장한 미국의 ‘대북적대시정책’에 의해 남북관계가 경색되면서 3기(2001년-02년)가 시작된다. 심지어 측근비리사건과 대북불법송금의혹은 대통령의 리더십에 심각한 타격을 입혔다. 그러나 김대중 대통령은 남북 간 대화와 협력을 기반으로 한 대북정책의 철학과 의지로 국내외 제약요인을 극복하고자 하였고 임동원이 임기 내내 대북정책의 컨트롤타워로서 역할을 하여 일관된 대북포용정책을 추진할 수 있었다.
지금까지 살펴본 것처럼 양 정부의 최고정책결정자는 국제환경이 만들어준 공간 안에서 남북관계를 개선하려는 의지를 관철시켜 나갔고 국내정치가 대북정책의 폭과 속도를 결정하였다. 정책결정자 요인은 정책의 최종적인 결정자로서 기능하며 국제환경적 요인과 국내정치적 요인에 대응하거나 두 요인을 활용하여 대북정책을 촉진하거나 제약하였다.

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본 연구의 목적은 노태우 정부와 김대중 정부 시기 양 정부의 대북정책을 촉진 또는 제약했던 국제환경적 요인, 국내정치적 요인, 그리고 정책결정자 요인을 중심으로 각각의 요인이 어떤 ...

목차 (Table of Contents)