Shadows of History: Eight Essays on Exchange Rates, Trade Dynamics, and Hysteresis.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This dissertation is comprised of one essay focusing on the measurement of real exchange rate indexes, three chapters on the various impacts of real exchange rate movements on the economy, two essays on the impact of fixed exchange rate regimes on trade, one essay on the long-run impact of trade shocks, and a final chapter on the diffusion of technology along geographic lines. The common theme is that these essays collectively paint a picture of the world in which history casts surprisingly long shadows, as current economic relationships --trade, employment, productivity, and output --are the product of history.
In the first essay, coauthored with Ju Hyun Pyun, we propose several new methods of computing real exchange rate indices which fix a subtle, but important, index numbers problem apparent in widely-used series created by the Federal Reserve and the IMF, and also control for productivity. Extending one of these indexes historically for the US back to 1820, we uncover a new empirical fact --that in 2002, the US price level had been higher relative to trading partners than at any time since the worst year of the Great Depression.
The next three chapters essay address the issue of the economic impact of RER movements. To identify a causal impact of RER movements on manufacturing, I compare the US experience in the early 2000s to the 1980s, when large US fiscal deficits led to a sharp appreciation in the dollar, and to Canada's experience in mid-2000s, when high oil prices and a falling US dollar led to an equally sharp appreciation of the Canadian dollar. I use disaggregated sectoral data and a difference-in-difference methodology, finding that an appreciation in relative unit labor costs for the lead to disproportionate declines in employment, productivity and output for both the US and Canada. In addition, I find that the impact of a temporary shock to real exchange rates is surprisingly long-lived. In the second of these chapters, I find scant evidence for an impact of adverse trade shocks on inquality in manufacturing, and in the third, I speculate that the collapse in manufacturing caused by tectonic shifts in relative prices are a likely cause of the "ecular stagnation"experienced in the US since 2000.
In the fifth and sixth chapters I challenge previous literature which found that currency unions lead to dramatically larger trade flows. I found that this previous literature did not control for the fact that current trade relationships are the product of historical forces --in this case, that countries with former colonial relationships experienced only a gradual decay of trade ties over time since independence. Adding in a dynamic control for country-pair specific trends in trade patterns, and omitting currency union changes brought on by major geopolitical events such as communist takeovers and ethnic cleansing episodes severely weakened the previous findings in the literature.
In the seventh chapter, I look at the long-run impacts of temporary shocks to trade patterns from the world wars. I find, for example, that while UK manufacturers dominated world export markets before WWI, during the war US exporters rose to prominence, but that after the war the UK could then not regain the market share it had previously, even given the relative reduction of UK GDP.
In the final chapter, with coauthor Ju Hyun Pyun, we challenge a previous seminal finding in the development literature which found that a country's " genetic distance" to the US predicts its per capita GDP, even while controlling for a whole host of other variables. We find, by contrast, that the apparent impact of genetic distance was not robust to the inclusion of two standard geographic controls --distance from the equator and a dummy for sub-Saharan Africa.