When authoritarianism survives : North Korea, Libya, Syria

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The study investigates factors influencing authoritarian regime
survivability. The study of these factors has primarily importance with more
non-democratic regimes experiencing political change and the recent waves of
anti-government protests in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. The
evolution of events of the Arab Spring has shown that the domestic policies
considered to be the tools of authoritarian survival fail to explain the variation
among the cases of authoritarianism. Regimes sharing all important domestic
policies still differ in their fate. Even the most seemingly oppressive and
sustainable authoritarian regimes fell, while others managed to persist. The
variation is puzzling and this dissertation attempts to answer the following
questions. First, what are the factors influencing authoritarian regime’s ii

survivability? Second, why even some of the highly authoritarian regimes,
which appear internally rather stable and have eliminated any possibility of
opposition to grow into a substantial force, may experience change? Finally,
how the variation between the cases of North Korea, Libya and Syria can be
explained?
This dissertation argues that the interaction of international factors will
provide better explanation of authoritarian regime survival. International
factors, such as: 1) a revisionist great power possessing will and capabilities to
promote a regime change; and 2) a pro-regime great power that also has both
will and capabilities to support the regime in power, – may affect the existing
distribution of power between the ruling regime and the opposition, thereby
influence the proximity of the regime change.
The proposed theory is based on the thorough study of the three cases:
Libya, North Korea, and Syria. The study of the causes of variation suggests
new theoretical insights concerning the dynamics of authoritarianism, which
will continue to play an important role in the twenty-first century, since in the
next decades we will likely see uneven rates of anti-regime revolutions, with
the wave of uprisings spreading through the Arab World and even beyond.
Keywords: Authoritarian Regime, Regime Change, Regime Survival,
North Korea, Libya, Syria.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1
• 1.1. THE PUZZLE 1
• 1.2. SIGNIFICANCE 4
• 1.3. MAIN ARGUMENT 6
• 1.4. THE PLAN OF THE THESIS 9
• CHAPTER 2: THEORY AND METHODOLOGY 11
• 2.1. EXISTING EXPLANATIONS OF THE NORTH KOREAN REGIMES SUSTAINABILITY 11
• 2.2. BUILDING A THEORY 31
• 2.2.1. Conceptualizing and Measuring of Authoritarianism 33
• 2.2.2. Access to Resources and the Distribution of Power 39
• 2.2.3. Great Powers and the Distribution of Power 41
• 2.2.4. Hypotheses 47
• 2.3. ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS 54
• 2.4. METHODOLOGY 62
• CHAPTER 3: THE CASE OF LIBYA 71
• 3.1. REVISIONIST GREAT POWERS: THE UNITED STATES AND GREAT BRITAIN 73
• 3.2. NO PRO-REGIME GREAT POWER 82
• 3.3. THE CIVIL WAR IN LIBYA 85
• CHAPTER 4: THE CASE OF NORTH KOREA 93
• 4.1. NO REVISIONIST GREAT POWER 93
• 4.2. THE NORTH KOREAN CRISIS (2001 2008) 108
• CHAPTER 5: THE CASE OF SYRIA 121
• 5.1. POTENTIAL REVISIONIST GREAT POWER: THE UNITED STATES 123
• 5.2. PRO-REGIME GREAT POWER: RUSSIA 132
• 5.3. THE CIVIL WAR IN SYRIA 140
• CHAPTER 6: TESTING THE ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS 151
• 6.1. ETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATION AND REGIME STABILITY 151
• 6.2. NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND THE NORTH KOREAN REGIMES SURVIVAL 156
• CHAPTER 7: CONCLUSION 161
• LIST OF REFERENCES 169