북한의 군사도발 위협과 능동적 억제전략에 관한 연구 : 억제의 달성조건을 중심으로 = The Study of N.K.’s Military Provocation Threat and Proactive Deterrence Strategy:focused on achieving the deterrence conditions

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

<ABSTRACT>

The Study of N.K.’s Military Provocation Threat
and Proactive Deterrence Strategy
- focused on achieving the deterrence conditions -

Hong, Je Wan
Advisor : Prof. Kim, Jae Chul
Department of Political Science and Diplomacy
The Graduate School of Chosun University

Since the Armistice Treaty being agreed, North Korea had been doing many kinds of military provocation. Especially, the recent sunk of Cheon-an vessel by N.K.'s torpedo and shelling of Yeon-Pyoung-do in 2010 made us have more concerns to the preparation and military readiness posture against the N.K.'s military provocations. And efficient deterrence strategy is needed nowadays because the N.K. has been scattering the peace and stability of North-east Asia and bringing on the arms race in this region through the third-times nuclear weapons tests and the launching of long range missiles as well as the direct military provocation toward South Korea.
Not only the N.K.'s military threat but also potential threat from our neighber countries are the primary factor of future conflict that we have to face which makes the security environment of Northeast Asia worse.
According to this circumstances, the Ministry of Defense push ahead with the proactive deterrence strategy, which makes up for the former military reformation plan and strengthen the military capability.
The proactive deterrence strategy is the concept of our military strategy which deters the provocation threat from N.K. and potential enemy country in efficient manner.
In order to embody this strategy concept, the proactive deterrence strategy shatter the enemy's intent of provocation to pieces by making the favorable strategic environment.
This strategy deter the dispute by N.K.'s provocation and potential threat by having all capabilities and readiness posture to cope with a various threats with the ROK-US alliance and Combined Forces for a basis, which is a more offensive concept than former active deterrence strategy.
The proactive deterrence strategy is needed to be developed into comprehensive concept that can ready to not only defeat the N.K.'s possible military local provocation toward Rrpublic of Korea but also N.K.'s nuclear weapon and WMD threats, and it should be developed in direction of deterring the enemy's additional provocation will and the total war on Korean peninsula by carrying out a resolute punishment and retaliation measures in a sense of self-defense when the N.K. dare to do any kinds of provocation.
The accomplishment conditions of the proactive deterrence strategy are needed to be satisfied. First of all, we should strengthen the military capability to prepare the top priority of N.K.'s possible provocation. In order to this, we need to not only ensure the precise surveillance and early warning capability to North Korea, build the Kill-Chain and KAMD system, strengthen the security measure of producing a extended deterrence capability from United States, reinforce a joint military force in north-west islands area continuously and improve the cyber-space warfare capability for denial ability, and also need to have the punishment capability in the concept of maximum and minimum deterrence strategy.
Secondly, we should send our message that we will not let North Korea provoke to us in a various means and ways and establish the indomitable will on firm footing to deter the provocation.
Thirdly, we should get the credibility by implement a punishment and retaliation to the North Korea when the N.K. provoke to us.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 목 차
• 제1장 서 론 1
• 제1절 연구의 목적 1
• 제2절 연구의 범위 및 방법 3
• 제3절 선행연구의 검토 4
• 제2장 억제전략의 이론적 고찰 7
• 제1절 억제의 개념 7
• 제2절 억제의 대상․수단․유형 11
• 제3절 억제의 달성 조건 19
• 제3장 북한의 도발위협 분석 26
• 제1절 북한 군사전략의 변화 27
• 제2절 북한의 도발 능력 평가 40
• 제3절 예상되는 북한의 도발 유형과 시기 63
• 제4절 북한의 도발 가능성 분석 71
• 제4장 ‘능동적 억제전략’에 대한 발전적 구상 74
• 제1절 억제전략 사례 분석 74
• 제2절 ‘능동적 억제전략’의 내용 88
• 제3절 ‘능동적 억제전략’의 발전방향 91
• 제5장 결 론 104
• 참 고 문 헌 107