대한민국과 방글라데시의 경제협려 분석 및 정책 협력의 필요성 : An Analysis of Korea-Bangladesh Economic Cooperation and Public Policy Imperatives

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This dissertation investigates the economic cooperation between Korea and Bangladesh, explores the public policy needs to accelerate the trade, investment, and development cooperation in bilateral framework. An economic analysis of the bilateral merchandize trade is conducted to analyze the determinants of trade cooperation. The gravity equation of bilateral trade involving South Korea and Bangladesh is found to possess good economic potentials of further trade cohesion and reciprocity. Irrespective of the difference in pace of economic development and geographical distance, the international trade between South Korea and Bangladesh shows more opportunities and prospects than obstacles, as is evidenced from the pattern and composition of bilateral commodity trade. The simple gravity model of trade in random and fixed effects forms demonstrates that bilateral trade flow is significantly related with the development of national economies irrespective of distances or non-contiguity of partners. The trade projection estimates and the trade potential data are explicitly suggestive of deeper economic cooperation including comprehensive trade partnership between South Korea and Bangladesh. The implication of trade growth, in particular, the export growth of both countries being significantly associated with the expansion of gross domestic products and trade projection estimates warrant increasing economic cooperation between these distant economies to harness untapped trade potentials.

The factors influencing the Korean FDI in Bangladesh are identified with a view to draw public policy implication for Bangladesh. Development cooperation trends are examined to draw imperatives for social development in Bangladesh and it found that urban advancement is a sine qua non for social progress but the one of the deficient factors is energy. The implication appeared that fruitful development co-operation requires technology collaboration in nuclear electricity in addition to co-operation in trade, finance, investment, human resource and exchange. Both constraints and prospects of public policy intervention for meaningful economic cooperation are presented with conclusion. Assuming trade, investment and development assistance as the principle instruments of bilateral economic cooperation between the Republic of Korea and Bangladesh the dissertation investigated the basic themes of reciprocal cooperation both quantitatively and qualitatively in order to find out the public policy imperatives for Bangladesh which would generate increased collaboration and cohesion in attaining the desired objectives.

The increasing Korea-Bangladesh trade cooperation are found to be justified on the grounds of a large export market of Bangladesh and an export-driven economy of Korea. The quantitative merchandise trade analysis has demonstrated that Bangladesh can be a key export market for South Korea’s exports. The estimated coefficients are suggestive of closer bilateral trade between these distant economies. The fact that the growth of Korean exports is positively related with the growth of purchasing power of the rise national income of Bangladesh would imply Korea’s greater involvement in resolving Bangladesh’s development problems relating to international trade, such as human resources development and labor absorption. Specially, the large trade deficit which is the obvious offshoot of increasing Korean export vis-à-vis decreasing Bangladeshi exports, and which exacerbates current account shortage of Bangladesh can be redressed by Korea’s trade assistance and development support measures alongside trade expansion.

The estimated coefficients of FDI determinants in Bangladesh are indicative of the fact that output growth, exports promotion, and commitment of more public development expenditures in Bangladesh can attract mode FDI, especially the Korean foreign investments in this host country. As a low-cost production base attractive incentive packages Bangladesh can be a good destination for Korean investors and KEPZs. The obstacles in the FDI operation areas can not be overcome by the host government alone the construe being that the core public policy emphasis is be on expanding the production base of the country by industrial investment and by promoting the private sector to vanguard the industrial employment which may be aided by foreign trade and investment on mutual or multilateral basis. The absence of the problems of tax disincentives and transfer pricing make positive argument for increased Korean investment in Bangladesh.

The imperatives of the policy thrusts are found needing to be directed to acquire employment growth in labor-intensive and sme (small and medium sized enterprises) manufactures, development of human and production resources that come into contact with foreign technology and skills associated with foreign investment. Public policy grounds of unemployment in the economy open to international markets, administrative inflation arising not from an excess demand, and cumulative imbalance in external deficits have linkage with international economic cooperation which also makes a case for improved economic ties with South Korea that would enhance trade and foreign investment position in Bangladesh.

Like all impacting financial crisis the incidence of acute underdevelopments or poverty of education, income, employment, health or environment can not be checked by the national state alone. Cooperation is required for achieving social development in urban agglomerations following Korean model of growth. But engagement of co-operation directly in social development sphere like education, health, employment or employment can only be effective as long as capacity building in energy services through technology co-operation is attained. Therefore, economic co-operation in the field of either conventional use of energy (exploration of oil and gas in sea, for example) or nuclear infrastructure for electricity can ameliorate social development situations in Bangladesh. The development cooperation arena can be extended to incorporate HRD in Korean studies to redress the unemployment problem and human resource development shortfall of Bangladesh having MOU (memorandum of understanding) or cooperation agreement with the Republic of Korea regarding foreign workers under the EPS (employment permission system). Consequently, employment cooperation under the development assistance program can facilitate and promote the spread Korean literature, languages and studies for the foreign job pursuant and Korea, the receiver country may effectively use Korean-speaking foreign job-seekers to meet labor shortage and train sending country’s human resources.

The general public policy imperatives for Bangladesh would be to further expedite bilateral trade, investment and development cooperation with South Korea by tariff reduction, moving towards a comprehensive economic partnership agreement, fostering inter industry trade, synergizing cooperation in SME development and energy development by natural gas- coal-oil exploration and commercialization in inshore and offshore land of Bangladesh with South Korea’s proven comparative advantage in the development of natural resources. In addition to utilizing the cheap labor force in Korean owned export businesses in Bangladesh, South Korea can create more economic potentials by making use of the coastal Bangladesh as an export base in the SAARC. The cooperation imperatives from Bangladesh perspective are also to provide necessary conditions for development of Korean business by removing all obstacles in the way of international trade and investment. The economic cooperation is also suggested to be forged in fighting financial crisis in which Korea has transferrable experiences.

In conclusion, the specific policies for more economic cohesion are recommended to increase economic development cooperation fund for Bangladesh, to invite more Korean private export processing zones in Bangladesh, to engage Korean investment in energy-transportation- communications-industry and infrastructure sectors in Bangladesh, to further expand duty free coverage under APTA-WTO, to forge joint ventures investments between Bangladesh energy agencies and Korean energy consortium, to augment grant assistance for human resources development in Bangladesh, to raise quota for Bangladeshi workers in Korea, and to put a proposal for the establishment of the Korea – Bangladesh Economic Cooperation Forum.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 논문은 한국과 방글라데시 간의 무역, 투자, 그리고 개발을 중심으로 경제 협력에 대한 조사와 방글라데시가 수립 시행해야 하는 공공 정책을 탐구하였다. 양국 무역의 경제 분석을 위하여 무역의 결정요인을 찾고자 하였고, 양국간 123교역의 중력 방정식 모형을 통하여 무역의 증진을 통한 경제성장의 잠재력을
견하였다. 경제 발전과 지리적 거리의 차이에 큰 관계없이, 한국과 방글라데시간의 무역은 양국 상품 무역 패턴과 구성 측면에서, 더 많은 기회와 전망을 주고 있다. 즉 랜덤 및 고정 효과 형태의 무역 중력 모델에서 양국 무역의 흐름은, 거리 또는 국경을 공유하느냐에 관계없이 무역에 관한 데이터가 한국과
글라데시 간의 포괄적인 무역 협력 관계를 포함하여 더 깊은 경제 협력의 필성을 명시적으로 제시하고 있다.
1970년대 중반 한국과 방글라데시간의 무역과 경제협력에 대한 협정이 체결된 이래, 양국간 재화 및 서비스 교역은 다른 영역에서의 지속적 발전과 더불어 새로운 추진력을 얻어 가고 있다. 따라서 정책의 추진을 필요로 하는 경제분야를 찾아내기 위해 양국간 수출과 수입의 상품 구조 및 경제 성장에 대한 검토가 필요하게 되었다. 국경을 접하는 국가간 교역량이 그렇지 않은 경우보다 많다는 것과 산업화된 국가들이 더욱 큰 수출시장을 지향하며 나아간다는 통상적 개념을 고려하면서, 본 연구는 인구가 많은 저개발국가와의 적극적인 교역증진을 통한 수출입국 상호간의 이익이 협력적 환경 하에서는 더욱 커질 수 있다는 것에 대하여 분석한다. 한국과 방글라데시간의 무역에 관한 중력방
정식(Gravity Equation)이 무역과 상호관계의 증진을 위한 경제적 잠재력을 잘 대변할 수 있는 것으로 나타났다. 교역의 증진, 특별히 국내총생산의 확대와 결부된 양국간의 수출 확대 및 분야에서, 아직 계발되지 않은 부문의 교역을 촉진시키기 위하여서도 원거리에 위치한 양국의 경제적 협력을 요구한다.
방글라데시에서 한국의 외국인 직접 투자에 영향을 미치는 요인은 방글라데시에 대한 공공 정책의 방향을 제시한다. 그리고 방글라데시 사회 발전에 있어서의 중요도 측면에서 보면 사회 발전을 위해 제일 필수적인 요소 중 하나가 에너지임을 발견한다. 그 의미는 개발 협력은 무역 분야에 추가하여 원자력기술 협력을 요구하며, 금융, 투자, 인적 자원과 교류도 중요하다. 대한민국과 방글라데시 간의 양국 경제 협력의 원칙을 점검하고 방글라데시에 대한 공공 정책의 우선순위를 찾기 위해 양적 및 질적으로 상호 협력의 기본 테마를 조사하고 무역, 투자 및 개발 지원을 증가시키는 것을 목표를 협력 방안을 제시하였다.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• I. INTRODUCTION 1
• 1. Research Objectives 2
• 2. Background & Existing Premises 2
• 3. Subject-matter of the Study 3
• 4. Study Methodology 4
• II. BILATERAL ECONOMIC COOPERATION 6
• 1. Bilateral Cooperation Theory 6
• 2. Cooperation Literature Review 7
• III. TRADE COOPERATION 9
• 1. Korea-Bangladesh Trade Relation 9
• 2. Bilateral Trade Pattern 11
• 3. Commodity Composition in Bilateral Trade 13
• 4. Gravity Model of Bilateral Trade 16
• 1)The model 16
• 2)Justification of using the gravity equation 17
• 3)Specification and estimation of the equation 17
• 4)Data sources 18
• 5) Sample size and data 19
• 6) Hypothesis and descriptive statistics 19
• 5. Estimation Results 21
• 6. Discussion of Outcomes 23
• 7. Deriving Trade Potentials 24
• 8. Implications for Economic Cooperation 26
• IV. INVESTMENT COOPERATION 28
• 1. Introduction and the Scope of Analysis 28
• 2. Foreign Investment Cooperation and Public Policy 28
• 3. FDI Flows Scenario in Korea and Bangladesh 30
• 4. Korean FDI and Ventures Capital in Bangladesh Economy 32
• 1) Korean FDI in Bangladesh 32
• 2) Korean ventures capital 33
• 5. An Analysis of FDI Inflow in Bangladesh and its Determinants 34
• 1) Literatures review on theoretical framework and model 34
• 2) Economic growth and FDI model specification 34
• 3) Determinant of FDI and its model specification 35
• 4) Variable descriptions of the specified functions 35
• 5) Data sources 36
• 6) Diagrammatical descriptions of the specified variables 37
• 7) Findings and discussion on the analysis of results 40
• 6. Implications for Investment Cooperation 43
• 1) Tax regimes and FDI 44
• 2) Problem of transfer pricing 45
• V. DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION 46
• 1. Basis for Development Assistance and Flow Trends 46
• 2. Anomaly in Social Development Dimensions 47
• 3. Urbanization and Economic Development 50
• 1)Urban agglomeration in Korea and Bangladesh 50
• 2)Urbanization and social development in Korea 52
• 4. Development Policy Issues to be learnt from Korean Experience 55
• 5. Highlights of Korean Development Assistance to Bangladesh 58
• 6. Reasons of Energy Generation for Development 59
• 7. Development Cooperation and Employment 60
• 1) Korea’s employment growth and foreign labor 60
• 2) Employment Permit System (EPS) 61
• 3) Foreigners employment in Korea 62
• 4) Employment and foreign language 64
• 5) Economic cooperation and Korean language 66
• 8. Implications of Korean Studies for Economic Cooperation between Korea and Bangladesh 67
• VI. PUBLIC POLICY IMPERATIVES OF ECONOMIC COOPERATION FOR BANGLADESH 69
• 1. Public Policy and Economic Cooperation 69
• 2. Rationale of Public Policy in Economic Cooperation 69
• 3. Public Policy Constraints to Economic Cooperation 71
• 1) Constraints to trade 71
• 2) Impediments to foreign investments 72
• 3) Obstacles in development cooperation 72
• 4. Public Policy Thrusts and Imperatives for Bangladesh 73
• 1) Trade policy and cooperation 73
• 2) Economic growth policy and FDI 74
• 3) Exports promotion policy and FDI 75
• 4) Foreign exchange policies and FDI 77
• 5) Public development expenditure policies and FDI 77
• 6) Current account balance positions and FDI 78
• 5. Development Cooperation and Public Policy Change 78
• 6. Economic cooperation in HRD trainings 81
• 7. Financial Crisis Management Policy and Cooperation 82
• VII. CONCLUSIONS 85
• ANNEXURES 93
• REFERENCES 109
• 1. 국문문헌 109
• 2. 서양문헌 109
• ABSTRACT (in Korean) 122
• APPENDIX
• I.List of Abbreviations 126
• II.List of Publications & Presentations 129
• III.Acknowledgements 132
• IV.Curriculum Vitae 133