북한의 핵과 미사일 문제 : 개발‧영향‧방향 = (A) Study on the North Korean Nuclear and Missile Problems : Development‧Effect‧Direction

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The end of the Cold War saw the sudden change in the security situation of the international community and Northeast Asia including that of the Korean Peninsula. This shift in the security situation caused local disputes which are the distinctive feature of the post-Cold War period and international politics centered discussion to transform into low-political-issues. This of course has resulted in the threat's increasing diversity. Thus internationally there is a mix of opposing and double aspects such as unification and separation, disarmament and arms race, and an increase of a peaceful atmosphere and threats of war.
This type of double aspect is becoming prominent in areas like the Middle East, Central Asia and Northeast Asia. The Korean Peninsula is still feeling the aftereffects from the process of the late 19th century and the 20th century when world order was changing. We went over the diagnosis of the current security situation and our own faults. To overcome this and indicate the direction we should go, we chose to research and study with a thesis theme of "North Korea's Nuclear and Missile Problem," the history of its development and its effects on the Korean Peninsula and the neighbouring countries. We mainly researched on the direction the government and the people should go in an attempt to overcome the situation.
First, to shed light on the situation around the Korean Peninsula in terms of security, it must be understood that as the division became domestically long term, a military imbalance of political structure and of nuclear and missile weapons was spawned. Overseas in a diversified world order and in relations between the ROK, U.S., North Korea and China, the security alliance structure between countries is changing in a background based on trust. The Big Four of China, Japan, Russia and the U.S. are looking to strengthen their military with an ambition to become military powers. The security situation in the Korean Peninsula due to North Korea's nuclear and missile weapons has designated the Republic of Korea determined to strengthen itself as a military state . It is also the policy of the Big Four to use our weakness to their advantage.
Here North Korea tries to create a crisis with its nuclear and missile weapons due to the uncertainty of support from friendly nations and economic problems. The North which was aware of the criticality of maintaining the system was trying to rationalize the justification of the status quo. With this and the nuclear weapons' ability to mass kill and destroy, the increasing striking range gives a great threat to South Korea and its neighboring countries. Another result is North Korea giving itself harm over this. The influence to South Korea and the Big Four and the resulting confrontation, especially the influence to the United States and Japan and the ability of nuclear weapons of mass destruction and killing has made South Korea aware of the threat. To directly deal with the North's weapons of mass destruction and indirectly with the goal of restraining dormant but hostile China, the two nations (U.S and Japan) are driving forward its sanctions on the North and the speeding up of the construction of the MD system. Japan is also using the opportunity to expand militarily and revise its constitution in order to become a military power.
There is a small difference with former friendly nations China and Russia but as the critical situation repeats, as South Korea recognizes the great threat and as North Korea renews the crisis the controlling power of both China and Russia decreases and their harmonious relationship with North Korea changes. China shares the goal of the denuclearization of the Peninsula with its neighboring countries regarding the North Korean problem. Even with its blood alliance and its logic that "without the lips the teeth gets colder." it has a firm stance toward North Korea and it can be judged that their relationship with them is changing. Russia after the collapse of the former Soviet Union, with its internal conflict and economic hardship is attempting to regain its former superpower status. by establishing improved relations with China in terms of military technology, weapons and joint training. In regards to Japan, while Russia attaches importance to a cooperating relationship it maintains disputes such as their territorial differences. In the meantime the Puting administration is trying to regain trust from North Korea. In regards to the missile and nuclear crisis in contrast to China it holds a cautious position and continues to maintain a cooperative relationship with the North. As for the United States and Japan their sanction policy towards the North cannot be stubbornly denied nor participated in actively which brings about a precarious position. The two countries are deploying a double policy of denying and using this method as needed.
For the South the reality is that the restraint by the Big Four is an obstacle in driving its policy towards the North and lessening the security scare for its people.
While the Big Four are reducing the size of their military forces they are increasing their military spending and widening their military intelligence and long distance striking capacity. With the exception of South Korea they all at one time possessed nuclear weapons or have the capacity to make such destructive devices.
By recognizing the worsening situation the state of affairs must be reformed as it relates to the direction of the fate of a country. In the light of the North Korean missile and nuclear crisis we must first consider how much to participate in the international pressure in using the concept of prevention and check. Also we must wisely settle the problem of the transfer of wartime operational control which is becoming a topic of discussion domestically.
Secondly establishing an independent national defense that appears in history books is not today's task. Even in the 21st century when the situation demands freedom and equality in terms of security we can be put at a disadvantage at anytime. Therefore in an international frame of political, economical and military shadows we need to maintain cooperative and friendly relations. For an independent national defense the most urgent business is not rushing to hold needed intelligence and long distance precision striking capability but driving forward with a careful plan.
Thirdly we must not make haste in establishing talks and cooperative relations with North Korea. To peacefully overcome the situation which has brought urgency and tension to the security of the Korean Peninsula due to North Korea's nuclear and missile tests. talks between the North and the South and through the Six Country Conference must continue. With the Six Country Conference, the participating countries must know exactly what they want in terms of operating the Daja Security Cooperating System which works on the basic growing concept of "General Principle." To recover trust which must become the premise and instead of the resolution of the problem of North Korea and the participating countries but to make an environment where these countries yield, we must not endeavor as a third country but as a leading country. Just like the period before German reunification, the South Korean government must not look immediately for a relationship with the North but aim at the long term future. To this end, with government and non-government organizations public opinion must be swayed correctly from anti-North Korean view by driving forward an active policy with various interchanges and collaborations in political, economical, social and cultural dimensions.
During the making of history creation and destruction are repeated. This is the truth of history; no one will sit back and watch his land and family get destroyed. So in the face of historical and territorial dispute, pride and life and death must be put on the line. The problem related to the North Korean nuclear and missile crisis and the demands by the Big Four must be dealt wisely. The buildup of a substantial defense, the maintenance of talks and North-South exchange and cooperation to avert emergency situations all make possible an independent national defense. This will also help reunification causes which is the desire of the Korean people. There has been no historical period that tolerated the weak. The fact that history depends on the strong only becomes truer.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 목차 = i
• ABSTRACT = iv
• 제1장 서론 = 1
• 제1절 연구의 목적 = 1
• 제2절 연구의 방법 및 범위 = 2
• 제2장 북한 핵과 미사일 개발 = 4
• 제1절 핵 및 미사일 개발 배경과 의도 = 4
• 제2절 북한 핵 및 미사일 개발 경과 = 12
• 제3절 북한의 핵 및 미사일 현황 = 16
• 제3장 북한 핵 및 미사일 문제의 영향과 대응 = 21
• 제1절 미국과 일본 ： 유일 패권국 입장 유지와 군사대국화 = 22
• 제2절 중국과 러시아 ： 거부와 활용의 이중성 = 36
• 제3절 한국 ： 중간자의 한계 = 47
• 제4절 한국과 주변국들의 대응 평가 = 57
• 제4장 문제해결을 위한 노력 = 63
• 제1절 현안문제의 극복 ： 전시작전통제권 환수 및 대량살상무기 확산방지체제 참여요구에 대한 대책 = 63
• 제2절 자주 국방력 건설 = 67
• 제3절 대북한 대화 및 교류·협력의 발전 모색 = 70
• 제5장 결론 = 83
• 〈참고문헌〉 = 86