REEXAMINING THE REGIONAL POVERTY GAP WITHIN THE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY IN EGYPT

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

1.1.1 Study Background
In September 2000, the world leaders at the Millennium Summit met in ？the largest gathering of world leaders in history？ . 191 nations adopted the Millennium Declaration. As a part of implementation, they set of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) as a political agenda for reducing poverty .The MDGs include a framework of 8 goals, 18 targets and 48 indicators. Using 2015 Target year and 1990 as a benchmark.They recommended all countries to design ambitious poverty reduction strategy .

In 2002, as a follow-up to the Declaration, the Secretary-General of UN commissioned an independent advisory body - called the Millennium Project (UN-MP) ？ to help the countries to draw MDGs ？ based poverty reduction strategy.

However, since 2000, the achievement seem little, and the global poverty still in a crisis, the economic development leaving behind about 2.8 billion people in relative poverty (less than $2 a day), about 1.2 billion people in extreme poverty(less than $1 a day) , and about 163 million live under ultra poverty (less than $0.50 a day) , there？s more, life expectancy in Botswana has dropped to below 40 years, 15 million children per year had lost one of both parents to AIDS .

1.1.2 Study Area
As a response, the UN millennium project in 2005 presented a new approach for development. They strongly recommended a four steps approach to achieve the MDGs: country needs to map the two key dimensions of poverty - regional, and gender dimension-, identify the specific investments necessary, converted it into a framework for action. And set its own poverty reduction strategy .

In particular, the issue of regional poverty gap RPG have been articulated that the ladder of economic development starting from the bottom, Where the poorest of the poor in rural areas. In these circumstances, the successful development strategy would entail firstly rising in rural productivity, ensure that the critical investments get channeled to lagging regions and groups excluded from economic benefits.

In this context, Egypt provides an interesting case related to regional poverty gap, at the level of the main three sub-national regions, the differences in economic growth are extremely large indicating that growth is centered in northern Egypt leaving the south lagging behind.

During 1994-2000, per capita GDP in metropolitan region grew by a phenomenal 8.9 percent a year compared to a modest 5 percent in Lower Egypt and a dismaying level of 0.5 percent in Upper Egypt. The estimated real GDP per capita (PPP$) in 1998-99 was US$7857 in metropolitan areas, 3974 in Lower Egypt, and US$3191in Upper Egypt .

Not surprisingly, overall poverty declined during the second half of the 1990s while regional differences in poverty levels remained significant . Also, many scholars argued that Poverty is more prevalent in Upper Egypt, where poverty measures are twice as large as the national level . In addition to being prevalent, the RPG in Egypt can be characterized as a chronic .

Further, The World Bank emphasis that the incidence of poverty in Egypt is significantly higher in rural areas than it is in urban areas and it is higher in Upper Egypt than in Lower Egypt. Indeed, the poverty rate in rural Upper Egypt almost doubled between 1995- 2000.Emphasizing that the spatial dimension of poverty is therefore important in the Egyptian case .

In addition, Egypt MDGs report 2004 and Egypt Human Development Report 2005 emphases that The greatest incidence, depth, and severity of poverty are in Upper - rural region, where 63.5 percent are poor.

Finally, in all three main regions in Egypt, less than 1 percent spends less than PPP US$1 a day. On the other hand, the proportion spending less than PPP $2 a day varies significantly from a low of 5 percent in metropolitan areas to a high of 50 percent in rural Upper Egypt. While less than 3 percent of the Egyptian population are identified as ultra poor, and more than 7 percent in rural Upper Egypt are identified as ultra poor .

Thus, the dilemma is that？although growing in Egypt？ economy over the past ten years, the poverty rate in rural Upper Egypt almost doubled.

1.1.3 Study Framework
This study aims to reassess better ways to bridging the regional poverty gap in Egypt within the context of Development strategy Based on an applicable investment approach. The main question is that ？How Can the poverty reduction strategy of Egypt better target the problem of the regional poverty gap? This study address the Poverty in its multi dimension, including income, social, human, protective, and lack of adequate capabilities .

Sub questions are further raised: 1) what is the current situation of the regional poverty gap in Egypt? 2) To what extent is the development strategy relevant to the existing regional problem? 3) How can policies more adequately and appropriately address the poverty gap between regions?

This study aims to 1) Analyzing the existing regional poverty gap in Egypt to understand the changing pattern in Egypt？s poverty profile, and Outlines the essential facts on poverty, by answering: Who and where are the poor? Second, Evaluating to what extent the Development strategy affected the regional gap, and 3) setting an applicable investment approach for bridging the regional poverty gap.

The scope of the study is that the regional poverty gap in Egypt, including Upper - Lower gap, and rural- urban gap. Within the period 1990 -2007 and the projections till 2015. The analysis includes the poverty map in Egypt and the poverty profile ？ as a characteristic of the poor- , and the regional poverty gap will divide to (upper ？ lower gap, and rural ？ urban gap) .The analysis based on the household region - specific poverty lines.

This Study is based on an Inductive methodology, using a qualitative approach, by applying the Tree analysis model TAM, that allows to organize hierarchically problems for analyzing the poverty gap, and the logic-Frame matrix (LFM) for addressing the outcomes .

1.1.4 Study Structure
The study is organized as follows. The first chapter for the theatrical framework (study background, literature review, and the methodology). The second chapter analyzes the regional poverty strategy to understate the changing pattern in Egypt？s poverty profile between 1990 - 2015; this is followed by a chapter for addressing the impact of national development strategy on the regional poverty gap. Finally, the study concludes with a chapter draws an applicable approach ？ based Investment for bridging regional poverty gap.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Table of Contents
• Acknowledgment iii
• List of Tables vi
• List of Figures viii
• Chapter1
• Theoretical Background 1
• 1.1 Introduction 1
• 1.1.1 Study Background 1
• 1.1.2 Study Area 2
• 1.1.3 Study Framework 4
• 1.1.4 Study Structure 6
• 1.2 Literature Review 6
• 1.2.1 Development - Based Poverty Reduction Strategy 6
• 1.2.2 Egypt Poverty Reduction Strategy 8
• 1.2.3 Regional Poverty Gap 9
• 1.3 Methodology 12
• Chapter 2
• Analyzing the Regional Poverty Gap (RPG) 17
• 2.1 RPG: Environment (Problem Tree Analysis) 17
• 2.2 RPG: Reasons (Problem Causes analysis) 21
• 2.3 RPG: Trends (Central problem analysis) 30
• 2.3.1 Upper ？ Lower Egypt Gap 30
• 2.3.2 Urban-Rural Gap 34
• 2.3.3 Inter-Sectional Gap (Upper-Lower
• Rural-Urban) 37
• Chapter 3
• The Impact of Development Strategy on RPG 47
• 3.1 The Impact Within (1960-2000) 47
• 3.2The Impact Within (2000-2022) 53
• 3.3 Egypt Development Strategy: Evaluating 57
• 3.4 Egypt Development Strategy Challenges 61
• Chaper4
• Outcomes: Based Investment Approach 67
• 4.1 The Priorities 67
• 4.2 Set the Guidelines 70
• 4.2.1 Growth for Income Poverty 70
• 4.2.2 Education for Human Poverty 71
• 4.2.3 Safety Nets for Protective Poverty 72
• 4.2.4 Cross Cutting for Capabilities Poverty 73
• 4.2.5 Poverty Reduction Strategy for Egypt: A Schematic Summary 69
• 4.2.6 Linkages between MDGs and NSSED in Egypt 75
• Chapter 5
• Conclusion 76
• References 82