북한 핵 위기관리 연구 : 1차 핵위기를 중심으로 = (A) study on the North Korean nuclear crisis management : focusing on the 1st nuclear crisis

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

As North Korea admitted its plan to develop a nuclear program, the Korean peninsula has encountered another nuclear crisis subsequent to the 1993 crisis. Two Koreas and four major nations surrounding the Korean peninsula have convened the Six-Party talks for a peaceful resolution, but were unable to reach any landmark breakthrough due to largely conflicting standpoints of the US and North Korea. Moreover, the talks have been stalled as North Korea, while insisting only on a bilateral talk with the US, refuses to participate. South Korea has been exerting every diplomatic capacity, including President Roh's summit diplomacy, in an effort to resolve the issue peacefully, but the prospect still remains obscure.
In essence, the second nuclear crisis is an extension of the first crisis with a similar development pattern. Hence, in order to achieve a peaceful resolution of the nuclear standoff, it is crucial to conduct more in-depth studies on the issue than the first crisis. This dissertation proposes the direction to develop crisis management system in Korea, through comprehensive studies on the background of the first North nuclear crisis and its course of development, by analysing and evaluating the followings; the brinkmanship diplomacy and negotiation tactics of North Korea, the US strategy and crisis management process, the reaction and crisis management process of the Korean government.
In the course of studying the North nuclear crisis, it is inevitable to realize the significance of overcoming a crisis by nation's own capacity. The fact that Korea, the directly-related party to the nuclear issue, had been excluded from discourses to resolve the 'life-or-death' issue for the peninsula well demonstrates the cruel reality of international politics - even a sovereign country can not keep up its national pride without power.
The possession of nuclear weapon by North Korea is a vital threat to the future of Korea as well as a major setback in achieving its national objective. However, the true nature of threat does not lie on the North nuclear program itself, rather on the absence of crisis consciousness. When properly recognized, a crisis can be managed by implementing appropriate preventive measures. On the other hand, as though a patient suffering some kind of immune deficiency syndrome, a nation has to remain vulnerable if unable to recognize a crisis situation. Hence, the ability to recognize the crisis situation is the most important element of crisis management.
The core of crisis management is establishing the most appropriate policy and counter-measures in achieving the national interest. The US has a system that opts for the most relevant measure through a scrupulous review process for every possibility ranging from diplomatic measures to military sanction. In addition, the system also applies, as a means of crisis management, both 'carrots and sticks' depending on situations. Korean crisis management system also needs to prepare various policies and measures in advance, and flexibly implement them for any given situation.
Currently, Korea and the US have somewhat different approaches toward the North nuclear problem, which attributes to varying national interests of the two countries. The US pursues the short-term objective of removing the threat from North Korea's nuclear weapon, while Korea is looking at longer-term objective of resolving the nuclear crisis and other inter-korean problems in the aftermath. In this context, given that Korea only has limited options under this circumstance, it is imperative to take a more meticulous approach. However, an effective crisis management of the North nuclear problem is hardly feasible without building a consensus between Korea and the US. Therefore, the essence of future crisis management will count on a peaceful resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue via closer cooperation and coordination between Korea and the US.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 목차
• 제1장 서론 = 1
• 제1절 연구의 목적 = 1
• 제2절 연구범위 및 방법 = 3
• 제3절 기존 연구 검토 = 5
• 제2장 위기관리의 이론적 고찰 = 9
• 제1절 위기관리 개념과 전개과정 = 9
• 제2절 위기관리 정책결정 = 17
• 제3절 미국·북한·한국의 위기관리체계 = 26
• 제3장 북한 핵 위기의 배경 = 37
• 제1절 북한의 핵개발계획 = 37
• 제2절 미국의 대북 핵정책 및 한미공조 = 50
• 제3절 북한 핵 개발 규명을 위한 노력 = 55
• 제4장 1차 위기관리 과정 분석 = 61
• 제1절 IAEA 대북한 핵사찰과 북한의 NPT탈퇴 = 61
• 제2절 미·북 고위급 회담 = 75
• 제3절 핵사찰 지연과 한반도 위기설 대두 = 89
• 제4절 북한의 핵연료봉 무단인출과 IAEA 탈퇴 = 106
• 제5절 카터의 방북과 위기의 해소 = 130
• 제5장 북한 핵 위기관리평가 = 149
• 제1절 미국·북한의 위기관리평가 = 149
• 제2절 한국의 위기관리 평가 및 발전방향 = 158
• 제6장 결론 = 174
• 참고문헌 = 178
• ABSTRACT = 187