전략적 유연성의 딜레마:우즈베키스탄의 미군기지 철수 사례에 대한 연구 = The Dilemma of Strategic Flexibility: A Study on Uzbekistan’s Decision to Evict U.S. Forces out of K2 Base

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In response to changing security environments after the Cold War, the U.S. has initiated Global Posture Review(GPR) of which main objective was to improve strategic flexibility of its forces abroad based on redefined alliance politics. Among the components of GPR, Forward Operating Sites(FOS) and Cooperative Security Locations(CSL), also known as ‘Lily pads’, are expected to play the most important role in improving flexibility and agility of forward deployed forces. In the ongoing War on Terror, the U.S. has negotiated with countries in Middle East, Central East, Black Sea, and Africa to gain access to foreign bases that would be used as Lily pads.
Against this backdrop, this paper addresses strategic challenges that GPR has faced by analyzing the case of U.S. withdrawal from K2 base in Uzbekistan 2005. First, the expansion of small and flexible foreign bases does not guarantee basing rights because of the trade-off between flexibility and stable access to foreign bases. Second, while the U.S. aims to create a global network of operational points, negotiation with undemocratic and at times even despotic leaders is inevitable. As a result, the U.S. may have to not only compromise its core principle of foreign policy, which is the promotion of democratic rules, but also risk putting extra cost in negotiating for an alternative base. Third, while the level of strategic distrust between the U.S. and China has become increasingly corrosive, Beijing might be more bend towards upgrading its A2/AD capability if Beijing takes the expansion of small and flexible bases of the U.S. around the areas of its core interests as an attempt to encircle China. If that is the case, the U.S. efforts to act preemptively against potential threats could become a self-fulfilling prophecy, unwantedly creating a situation in which threats get more intensified.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

탈냉전기 변화된 안보환경에 대응하기 위해 미국은 전략적 유연성 증대를 골자로 하는 범세계적 방위태세 검토(GPR)를 진행해왔다. 시스템 접근으로 보면, 여러 변화들 가운데 유지연합 국가들과의 전략적 협약을 통한 전진작전거점(FOS)과 안보협력대상지역(CSL)의 확산이 두드러지고 있다. 다양한 안보위협에 대응하기 위해 미국은 중동, 중앙아시아, 북해, 동남아시아, 그리고 아프리카 지역의 국가들과 주둔지 협정을 맺고 소규모 작전거점을 확장해오고 있다.
본 논문은 2005년 우즈베키스탄의 미군기지 철수에 대한 분석을 통해 그와 같은 전략적 전환의 문제점과 함의를 제시한다. 첫째, 소규모 작전기지 확산 전략에서는 ‘전략적 유연성’과 ‘안정적인 주둔권’ 사이에 교환(trade-off)이 발생해 지나치게 유연성을 추구할 경우 안정적인 접근성이 훼손된다. 둘째, 범세계적인 작전거점 네트워크의 구축을 위해서는 비민주적인 국가와의 협력이 불가피하다. 이로 인해 민주적 질서의 확산이라는 외교원칙을 타협해야 함은 물론 대체 기지 마련을 위한 추가적인 비용투입의 위험까지 감수해야 한다. 셋째, 중국이 미국 군사기지의 확산을 ‘포위’ 전략으로 간주하고 A2/AD 현대화를 통해 강경하게 대응할 경우, 잠재적 위협에 선제대응하기 위한 노력이 오히려 그 위협을 가중시키는 자기실현적 결과를 초래할 수 있다.

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