확률적 경로 모델링을 적용한 고구려 북도와 남도에 대한 이해 = Understanding Goguryeo’s Northern and Southern Routes Using Probabilistic Path Modeling

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study reconstructs the physical realities of Goguryeo's northern and southern roads—the primary stages of the mid-4th century conflict between Goguryeo and Former Yan (前燕)—and sheds new light on their historical characteristics by applying a novel methodology known as Probabilistic Least Cost Path (pLCP) modeling. To achieve this, an- cient roads were reconstructed using maps produced in the 1930s and aerial photographs from the 1960s as reference materials. Furthermore, topographical constraints and mobility were analyzed through GIS-based Monte Carlo simulation analysis.
The analysis identified the Northern Route as extending from Fushun through the Suzi River, Liudaohe, and Huanren to the Xinkai River and Ji‘an. The Southern Route was iden- tified as the path connecting Liaoyang through the Taizi River to Huanren, the Xinkai River, and Ji'an. Regarding the Northern Route, it is highly probable that the path passing through Liudaohe was militarily preferred over the detour via the Bu’er River. On the Northern Route, Goguryeo established Xincheng as its frontline. The excavation of a large quantity of iron weaponry dating to the mid-Goguryeo period at the Yonglingjin Ancient Fortress in the Suzi River basin suggests that this site functioned as a rear support base reinforcing the frontline.
The Southern Route demonstrates a topographical structure where multiple diverging paths from the lower Taizi River converge into a single route at Xiajiahexiang (near the Xin- bin Taizi Fortress). Notably, the upper chronological limit of Goguryeo mountain fortresses and tombs distributed west of Xiajiahexiang is generally estimated to be from the late 4th century to the early 5th century. This indicates that during the mid-4th century, Goguryeo’s effective territory had not yet expanded beyond the boundary of Xiajiahexiang into the lower Taizi River region.