주택매매소비심리와 수요･공급의 변화가 지방광역시 아파트 가 격에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 : 대구광역시를 중심으로 = A Study on the Effects of Consumer Sentiment in Housing Sales and Changes in Demand and Supply on Apartment Prices in Local Metropolitan City : Based on Daegu Metropolitan City

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study examines the effects of interest rate shifts, supply–demand dynamics, and housing consumer sentiment on apartment prices in Daegu Metropolitan City, a market characterized by substantial price volatility since the mid-2010s. The impulse response analysis shows that interest rate shocks exert the strongest impact on apartment prices in Daegu Metropolitan City, followed by substantial responses to shocks in housing market consumer sentiment and apartment completions, with their influence expanding considerably over the long term. The variance decomposition of forecast errors also yields comparable results.
Among the variables, interest rates exhibit the greatest explanatory power for changes in the apartment sales price index, followed by housing market consumer sentiment and apartment completions. However, both the growth of household number (as a demand variable) and single-family housing performance (as a substitute product) exhibit low explanatory power throughout the forecast periods. In particular, the explanatory power of interest rates and apartment completions increases steadily over longer horizons, and their effects persist in the long run. Meanwhile, the consumer sentiment index of the housing sales market tends to decrease in the long run although its explanatory power rises significantly at the initial time difference.