한국 계파정치의 특성과 제3정당의 한계 = Factional Politics and the Limits of Third-Party Viability in South Korea’s National Assembly Elections

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study analyzes factional dynamics within South Korea’s two major parties during the 20th (2016) and 22nd (2024) National Assembly elections, focusing on how these internal structures influenced the success or failure of third-party formations. The analysis yields three key findings. First, while the characterization of factions as “interest-seeking loose organizations” was previously limited to conservative parties, similar patterns emerged within the Democratic Party of Korea during the 2024 election. As this organizational feature became widespread, dominant factions led by strong presidential contenders monopolized candidate nominations, marginalizing minority factions and increasing the likelihood of their collapse. Second, amid a political climate framed by call for regime change, minority faction legislators encountered greater difficulty in defecting from their parties or launching new ones. Even when such defections occurred, the lack of ideological or policy differentiation limited their appeal, and newly formed third parties struggled to recruit viable candidates. Third, voter behavior under South Korea’s impermissive electoral system further constrained third-party viability. Voters dissatisfied with mainstream parties were reluctant to support third-party candidates when polls showed low chances of success. Notably, trust in polling data significantly reduced the likelihood of supporting third-party candidates, underscoring the interaction between institutional constraints and voter expectations. These findings suggest that rising affective polarization may facilitate party capture by core supporters, intensify hostility toward dissenting factions, and ultimately undermine intra-party pluralism and the quality of representative democracy.