트럼프 행정부의 보호무역조치가 한국의 대미무역수지에 미치는 영향 = Effects of Trump’s Protectionism on Korea’s Trade Balance with US

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study empirically examines the impact of the Trump administration's protectionism on Korea's trade balance with the United States, and attempts to propose policy implications for redesigning Korea's trade strategy. Using monthly data from January 2010 to May 2025, a multiple regression model and a vector error correction model are employed to quantify the effects of the change in U.S. administration, global supply chain pressure, and macroeconomic indicators. The key findings indicate that the Trump administration's policy uncertainty had a stronger negative effect on both short-run and long-run Korea's trade balance with the United States than the pressure on the global supply chain. This means that the Korean economy, which is highly dependent on trade, reacts sensitively to policy changes in countries with a relatively high share of trade volume. Therefore, it suggests that Korea needs strategies such as diversifying supply chains, upgrading export items, and establishing a trade system that takes into account the unique characteristics of the Korea-U.S. relationship. However, since this study focuses on a macro perspective, future studies need to present more precise policy alternatives through industry-specific impact analysis.