고해상도 SSP 시나리오 기반의 우리나라 미래 태양광 잠재 발전량 전망 = Future projection of photovoltaic potential over South Korea based on high-resolution shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The study predicts the future photovoltaic power generation potential (PVpot) changes over South Korea based on high-resolution climate change scenarios. According to the four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5), at the late 21st century, surface down-welling shortwave radiation, which has a major impact on PVpot, is expected to increase (by about +0.7 ∼ +3.5 W/m2) compared to the present-day. However, the increase or decrease of PVpot depends on the level of emissions in the future. In the low-emissions scenario, PVpot is expected to increase (by about +1.3%), while that in the high-emissions scenarios, PVpot isare expected to decrease (by about -0.7 ∼ -2.0%). As the temperature increases significantly, the temperature of the solar cell panels increase, and the performance ratio of PVpot decreases. This means that, even though the surface down-welling shortwave radiation increases, the increase in temperature may offset the positive impact on PVpot. Seasonally, PVpot is expected to increase (by about +2.3 ∼ +4.0%) in summer and decrease (by about -3.6 ∼ -7.1%) in winter. Overall, this study highlights the importance of considering the impact of climate change on solar energy. It also emphasizes the need to adopt low-emissions policies to mitigate the negative effects of climate change on renewable energy generation potential.

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