서비스산업과 도시성장간의 관계 : 한·중 비교분석 = An Empirical Study on the Relationship between the Service Industry and Urban Growth: Comparative Analysis of Korea and China

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between development of service industry and urban growth in Korea and China by collecting related statistic data between 1963 and 2012 through unit root test, cointegration analysis, Granger causality test, VAR model and VECM. The results of a study on the relationship between two variables show that an obvious mutually causal relationship exists between the development of service industry and the advancement of urbanization in Korea. But the case of China shows that the service is the promotion factor to urbanization, while urbanization has not yet apparent effect to service industry. It implies that China should accelerate the establishment of service economy system, and not push forward interactive activities between the urban transformation and modern service. Therefore, in order to speed up urbaning construction and development of service industry in China, great efforts are to be made to accelerate re-adjustment of urban economic structure, modernization and improvement of efficiency in service industry and reform of China's household registration system and labor policy such as the one-child policy, migrant workers of city and so on.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구의 목적은 한국과 중국에 있어서 서비스산업과 도시성장간의 관계 및 변수별 영향 정도를 파악하기 위한 것이다. 양국의 분석기간을 일치시키기 위하여 한국이 ‘경제개발 5개년계획’을 시작한 전반기인 1963년부터 2012년까지의 국가별 자료를 이용하였으며, 이들 간의 관계를 분석하기 위하여 단위근 검정, 공적분 검정, Granger 인과관계, VAR model과 VECM을 활용하였다.
두 변수 간 상호관계를 분석한 결과 한국은 서비스산업과 도시성장 간에 양방향 인과관계를 갖는 것으로 나타났으나 중국은 도시성장은 아직 서비스산업에 영향을 주는 촉진요인이 아닌 것으로 나타난 반면 서비스산업은 도시성장에 영향을 미치는 단방향 인과관계를 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 이것은 중국이 서비스경제시스템을 촉진시킨 결과임을 의미하며 도시변혁과 현대적 서비스산업 간에 상호활동이 없다는 것을 나타낸다.
그러므로 중국의 경우는 도시경제구조의 재조정과 서비스산업의 효율성을 제고할 필요가 있을 뿐만 아니라 1가구 1자녀 정책, 도시의 농민공과 같은 호구등록정책과 노동정책의 변화가 전제되면 도시성장이 서비스산업에 영향을 주게 될 것으로 예상된다.

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