21세기 중러 관계의 발전요인에 대한 분석

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 글은 구조현실주의 관점에 입각하여 21세기 중러 관계의 발전 요인들을 분석하고 있다. 또한 이 글은 중러 관계의 발전 과정에서 미국이 핵심적 행위자로서 줄곧 개입해 왔다고 보고있다. 중러 관계 발전의 다양한 요인들을 세부적 분석해 보면, 안보적 요인, 역사구조적 요인, 경제적인 요인 등이 복합적으로 작동하면서 중러 협력을 강화시켜 왔다고 보여진다. 대체로 중러 연대를 겨냥한 미국의 전략은 나토의 동진화, 신실크로드 전략, 아시아로의 재균형 전략, 즉 미국의 역내 리더십 유지, ‘환태평양 경제동반자 협정’(TPP) 추진, 특히 미일 동맹 강화를 포함한 안보네트워크의 구축, 중국을 겨냥한 ‘공해전’(ASB) 전략 등과 같은 일련의 정책을 통해 추진되고 있다. 미국의 전략에 맞서기 위해, 중국은 중러 안보협력 강화, 해양강국화, ‘일대일로’ 전략, 가령 아시아인프라투자은행(AIIB)의 창출, 다양한 다자협력레짐을 확대 강화시키는 전략으로 응수하고 있다. 러시아 역시 중국 회귀 전략(Pivot to China), 유라시아경제연합(EEU) 확립, 우크라이나 출구 전략의 구체화인 시리아 내전 개입을 통해서 미국의 러시아 경제 제재 및 고립화에 대응하고 있다. 그리하여 전반적으로 21세기에 미국이 중국과 러시아에 대한 개입과 견제를 강화하면 할수록, 중러 관계는 ‘전면적인 전략적인 협력 동반자 관계’를 넘어 향후 준동맹에 가까운 발전을 지속해 나갈 것으로 전망된다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Based on structural realism, this article examines developmental factors in the relationship between China and Russia since the beginning of the 21st century. This paper also suggests that the U.S., as the core actor, has continually engaged in the course of the development of Sino-Russian relations. Specifically, by analyzing multiple developmental factors in the relationship between China and Russia, we could find that security, historically structuralized , and economic factors have compositively played important roles in reinforcing bilateral cooperation. Generally speaking, the U.S.’s strategy to counterbalance the solidarity of China and Russia has been pushed forward with a series of polices. These include: NATO’s Eastward Expansion; the New Silk Road strategy; the rebalancing to Asia strategy, by maintaining American leadership in the region; building the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP); forging security networks, especially including the reinforcement of the alliance of the U.S. and Japan; and Air-Sea Battle Strategy against China. In order to countervail the U.S.’s strategies, China developed countermeasures, including: reinforcing security cooperation between China and Russia; the buildup of China’s maritime power; the so called ‘One belt-One road’ strategy, including the creation of the AIIB; and enlarging multilateral cooperation regimes. Russia also countered the U.S.’s isolation and economic sanctions on Russia by using the so-called Pivot to China, establishing the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), and intervention in the Syrian civil war as an exit strategy in the Ukraine. On the whole, it is estimated that the more the U.S. leads to increasing intervention and a containment policy toward China and Russia in the 21st Century, the more Sino-Russian relations would be able to grow from a ‘comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership’ to a quasi-alliance.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 머리말
• Ⅱ. 중러 관계 발전의 촉진 요인들
• Ⅲ. 맺음말
• 참고문헌
• Abstracts

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