2015년 미얀마 총선과 정치변동: 선거의 민주화와 불확실한 미래 = An Analysis on the 2015 General Elections and Political Change in Myanmar: Electoral Democratization and Uncertain Future

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this article is to analyze the process and results of Myanmar’s elections carried out in November 2015 and forecast the aspects of Myanmar’s future political development. This elections was meaningful as it was the first free elections in 25 years since 1990 and a political event that completed the reform led by the new government established in 2011. As expected, the National League for Democracy, led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, triumphed declaring 76.7% of the parliamentary seats. NLD’s victory did not stem from its platform policies but rather from Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s personal popularity and the people’s antagonism toward the military. Therefore, the political imperatives anticipated and demanded by the newly elected government were scattered. First of all, Myanmar’s state structure and political situation is not incorporated into the current election system, which was the case for the recent elections. Election reform measures such as the proportional representation system must be implemented especially in consideration of the ethnic tribes. Furthermore, the NLD must achieve democratization within the party as it currently stands as a Daw Aung San Suu Kyi centered sanctuary. In addition, it will be important for the NLD to strengthen its feeble capacity. At the end of March 2016, Myanmar recuperated its civilian-led government in almost 70 years. The military, however, stood at the heart of the political order and still continues to wield its political influence as no force is capable of replacing the military. As a result, Myanmar’s democracy will maintain basic democratic characteristics like that of a newborn democratic nation but will substantially be a hybrid regime mixed with authoritarian traits.

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