미얀마, 질서 있는 이행 모델: 체제 내 변화에서 체제 변화로의 진화 = Myanmar as a Model of Orderly Transition: The Evolution from Change within Regime to Change of Regime

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Orderly transition in Myanmar is characterized by the evolution from change within regime to change of regime. Change within regime designates the period from the emergence of new army group replacing Ne Win’s iron rule to the retreat phase of SPDC, Myanmar’s military junta. In other words, this can be regarded as a preparation phase for the transition from totalitarian predatory state to authoritarian developmental state and moderate course toward a full-fledged democracy. The change of regime began with the inauguration of Thein Sein pseudo-civilian government, a critical momentum of radical liberalization. These two kinds of changes equal to dual transition to multi-party electoral democracy and market economic system. In this context, a seven-step roadmap for discipline-flourishing democracy was outlined, as the military’s response to ASEAN’s engagement and western countries’ sanction. It’s a kind of unintended cooperation for changing Myanmar toward democratic regime between external two sides. Internally, negotiation betweeen reformers in military and moderates in democratic forces, namely the cooperative competition, created orderly transition as regime-initiated liberalization or pacted democratization. Thein Sein led reformist elements associated with the Tatmadaw, while Aung San Suu Kyi led moderate democratic forces composed of diverse ethnic lines and political factions. NLD nascent government should inevitably share power with the Tatmadaw in terms of orderly transition based on the 2008 Constitution. Particulary if the theory that rapid economic growth creates rapidly the socio-economic base for democracy, and the other way around, is true, evolutionary regime change in Myanmar as a underdeveloping country is inevitable. Myanmar as a model of evolutionary transition can be a leading model of fourth wave of democratization for Asian socialist countries including North Korea, trying to escape from totalitarian revolutionary state, and reach forward to authoritarian developmental state.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 박은홍, "제3세계, ‘자유의 왕국’을 향한 영구혁명" 24 (24): 210-224, 2011

2 박은홍, "민족혁명과 시민혁명: 타이와 미얀마" 한국동남아학회 24 (24): 127-165, 2014

3 장준영, "미얀마의 정치경제와 개혁개방: 성과와 과제" 지식과교양 2013

4 장준영, "미얀마의 신헌법제정과 정치질서의 미래" 동남아연구소 16 (16): 169-209, 2007

5 장준영, "미얀마 신정부의 개혁개방 평가: 회고와 전망" 동남아연구소 25 (25): 373-402, 2016

6 박은홍, "동아시아의 전환: 발전국가를 넘어" 아르케 2008

7 박은홍, "‘아세안 방식’(ASEAN Way)과 동남아시아 신흥공업국의 역할 변화:주권개발인권의 갈등적 공존과 그 진화" 한국동남아학회 16 (16): 119-148, 2006

8 Haacke, Jürgen, "‘Enhanced Interaction’ with Myanmar and the Project of a Security Community" 27 (27): 188-216, 2005

9 Kim, Steven, "Why North Korea Won’t Follow Myanmar’s Path to Reform" 9 (9): 46-53, 2014

10 Aurel Croissant, "Why Do Military Regimes Institutionalize? Constitution-making and Elections as Political Survival Strategy in Myanmar" 서울대학교행정대학원 21 (21): 105-125, 2013

11 O’Donnell, Guillermo, "Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies" The Johns Hopkins University Press 1986

12 Mya Maung, "Totalitarianism in Burma: Prospects for Economic Development" Paragon House 1992

13 Huntington, S. P., "The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth" University of Oklahoma Press 1991

14 Susanne Prager Nyein, "The Political Resurgence of the Military in Southeast Asia" Routledge 2011

15 Fujita, Koichi, "The Economic Transition in Myanmar After 1988: Market Economy vs. State Control" NUS Press 1988

16 Johnson, Chalmers, "The Developmental State" Cornell University Press 1999

17 Mya Maung, "The Burmese Way to Socialism beyond the Welfare State" 10 (10): 533-551, 1970

18 Jenkins, David, "Suharto and His Generals: Indonesian Military Politics, 1975-1983" Cornell University Southeast Asia Program Publications 1983

19 Sai Khaing Myo Tun, "State-Building in Myanmar (1988-2010)and Suharto’s Indonesia: A Study of Building Developmental State in Myanmar" Lambert Academic Publishing 2011

20 Tin Maung Maung Than, "State Dominance in Myanmar: The Political Economy of Industrialization" ISEAS 2007

21 Cheong, Yong Mun., "Soldiers and Stability in Southeast Asia" ISEAS 1990

22 Wiant, Jon A., "Soldiers and Stability in Southeast Asia" ISEAS 1990

23 Shin, Doh Chull, "On The Third Wave of Democratization" 47 (47): 135-170, 1994

24 "New Light of Myanmar"

25 Mulqueeny Kala, "Myanmar’s Future: Posied for Real Democratic Transition"

26 Sachs, Jeffrey, "Myanmar: Sanctions Won’t Work"

27 Tin Maung Maung Than, "Myanmar: Sanction Won’t Work"

28 Tin Maung Maung Than, "Military Professionalism in Asia" East-West Center 2001

29 Callahan, Mary P., "Making Enemies: War and State Building in Burma" Cornell University Press 2005

30 Johnson, Chalmers, "MITI and Japanese Miracle" Standford University 1982

31 Sundhaussen, Ulf., "Indonesia’s New Order: A Model for Myanmar?" 35 (35): 768-780, 1995

32 Dittmer, Lowell, "Globalization and Democratization in Asia" Routledge 2002

33 Dudley, Sandra, "External’ Aspects of Self Determination Movements in Burma" QEH 1-32, 2003

34 Evans, Peter, "Embedded Autonomy: States and Industrial Transformation" Princeton University Press 1995

35 Tin Maung Maung Than, "Democratization in Southeast and East Asia" Silkworm Books 1997

36 Anek Laothamatas, "Democratization in Southeast and East Asia" Silkworm Books 1997

37 Pavin Chachavalpongpun, "Dawei Port: Thailand’s Megaproject in Burma" 6 (6): 96-107, 2011

38 Steinberg, David I., "Burma/Myanmar: What Everyone Needs to Know" Oxford University Press 2010

39 Clapp, Priscilla, "Anatomy of a Political Transition" United States Institute of Peace 2015

40 Roberts, Christopher, "ASEAN’s Myanmar Crisis" ISEAS 2010

41 Brandon, John, J., "ASEAN Chairmanship Offers Opportunity for Myanmar"

42 Sai Khaing Myo Tun, "A Comparative Study of State-Led Development in Myanmar (1988-2010) and Suharto’s Indonesia: An Approach from the Developmental State Theory" 3 (3): 69-94, 2011